Under the dual favorable resonance of macro and fundamentals, the strong pattern of Hujiao in the medium term is expected to continue.
However, due to the demand for callbacks due to the overheating of the previous market, and the expansion of the non-standard period's current spreads may put a certain pressure on the market, investors need to be alert to the risk of increased short-term fluctuations.
After the holiday, Hujiao broke through the consolidation pattern since New Year's Day and pulled up strongly.
The main contract once touched above 17,000 yuan/ton, setting a new high in nearly three and a half years.
After the holiday, the market is hot.
First, against the background of global economic recovery and reinflation expectations, commodities represented by crude oil and copper have risen sharply, and the room for cyclical commodities has gradually opened up; second, the tight supply of natural rubber is expected to give The disk must be supported.
Seasonal decrease in global natural rubber production
From a seasonal perspective, China, Vietnam, and Thailand are currently in the stage of complete shutdown, and the global natural rubber production is showing a seasonal decline.
The output from March to April is at a low level during the year, and the supply pressure is relatively small.
Affected by this, raw material prices in Thailand have continued to rise since the Spring Festival holiday.
As of February 25, the price of glue in Thailand was 66.
5 baht/kg, and the price of cup glue was 45.
3 baht/kg, up by more than 38% and 12%, respectively, compared with February 10 before the Spring Festival.
The glue-cup glue price gap has also widened rapidly.
To a high of 21.
The sharp rise in raw material prices has formed a strong cost support for rubber prices.
The dark glue inventory will continue to go in the later stage
As of February 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber warehouse receipts amounted to 168,000 tons, the lowest level in the same period in the past five years, and a 30% decrease from the same period in 2020.
At present, the domestic production area is in the cut-off period.
Under normal circumstances, the new season in Yunnan will start in late March and in Hainan in early April.
The phenology of the domestic production areas is normal this year, and the deciduous condition of rubber trees is good, and the probability of smooth opening in the production areas is higher.
However, considering the limited production release at the beginning of the cut and the high profit of concentrated milk processing will continue to squeeze out all latex raw materials, the full latex warehouse receipts will continue to remain low, and the issue of tight delivery products will continue in the RU2105 contract.
In January, the total export volume of natural rubber in Thailand was 315,700 tons, down 25% and 21% year-on-year and month-on-month respectively.
Among them, the volume of exports to China fell even more, due to insufficient containers, soaring freight rates, and cautious domestic non-standard arbitrage operations.
In the later stage, with the decrease in the arrival of domestic imported cargoes, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials after the full resumption of work in the downstream will increase, which may bring about the possibility of accelerated desorption of dark rubber stocks.
Downstream demand is expected to continue to improve
Under the guidance of the local "New Year in situ" initiative, the average holiday days of domestic tire companies during the Spring Festival this year have been significantly shortened.
In addition, the demand for orders from manufacturers after the holiday has been better, so the pace of resumption of work after the holiday has accelerated compared with previous years.
Relevant data show that in the week of February 25, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 59.
02%, an increase of 41.
53 percentage points month-on-month and 15.
49 percentage points year-on-year; the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 55.
96%, a month-on-month increase of 35.
49 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 14.
After the Lantern Festival, the manufacturer's production has further recovered, and the price of raw materials has been spurred by the continuous increase in tire prices.
The dealers' stocking mood has been boosted.
With the support of sales, the overall start-up load will continue to rise in the later period.
It is expected to be expected in mid-to-early March.
Raised to the level of 60 to 70%.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.
388 million and 2.
503 million in January, up 34.
6% and 29.
5% year-on-year, and down 15.
9% and 11.
In terms of segmentation, passenger car sales reached 2.
045 million units, a significant increase of 29.
Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 179,000, a year-on-year increase of 238.
5%, setting a new historical single-month high.
Driven by the continued policy increase and the industry's upward recovery cycle, it is expected that the new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a rapid growth momentum in 2021, and passenger vehicle sales will continue to maintain a year-on-year upward trend.
In terms of commercial vehicles, the heavy-duty truck market remains strong.
Relevant data shows that after the domestic heavy truck sales in January ushered in a good start, February sales are expected to exceed 110,000, an increase of about 200% year-on-year.
This is also the heavy-duty truck market refreshing monthly historical records for eleven consecutive months since April last year.
Taking into account that the comprehensive upgrade of the National VI emissions for heavy-duty diesel vehicles starting in July this year will increase the cost of bicycle purchases, it is expected that the sales of National V inventory vehicles in the first half of the year may usher in an explosion.
Therefore, various heavy-duty truck companies have unprecedented efforts in terminal promotions and channel distribution.
Fully compete for the market in the first half of the year.
Coupled with positive factors such as room for the elimination of the national triplex trucks and the normalization of over-regulation policies, it is expected that the high boom in the heavy truck market in the first half of the year is expected to continue.
In terms of tire exports, with the gradual recovery of the overseas economy since the second half of 2020, terminal demand has been boosted, and China, as the first country to restore production capacity from the epidemic, has benefited from the fact that overseas production capacity has not fully recovered, which has caused export orders to be transferred to the country.
This has promoted a strong rebound in the tire export market.
In 2021, as the global new crown vaccination schedule accelerates, the impact of the epidemic will gradually weaken, the global economic recovery is expected to increase, and overseas stocks will enter the restocking cycle.
At the same time, considering that the export substitution effect will still exist in the first half of the year, domestic tire exports are expected to remain resilient.
In summary, the global supply of natural rubber has entered a seasonal low-yield period.
The domestic Yunnan producing areas will face opening in mid-to-late March, but the increase in natural rubber warehouse receipts before delivery in May is expected to be limited.
On the other hand, with the accelerated resumption of work downstream after the holiday, the demand-side recovery trend continued.
Automobile and heavy truck data showed good results.
The demand for matching tires is expected to be optimistic.
At the same time, driven by external demand repair and export substitution effects in the first half of the year, domestic tire exports may maintain resilience.
Therefore, the rubber market has entered the time window of a phased mismatch of supply and demand, which is a positive support for the disk.
From a medium and long-term perspective, the upward trend of Hujiao oscillation has not yet ended.
Transfer from: Futures Daily
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