Shuanghuanglian's performance is poor. CITIC Department relies on health care products business and large-scale advertising to revive Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd?

Recently, the nationwide phenomenon of snapping up Shuanghuanglian's shares is only a flash in the pan, which basically does not help its performance After CITIC department's holding, can it revive Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd by acquiring foreign traditional health care products enterprises and taking the old road of large-scale advertising investment? Novel coronavirus, which is not conducive to the performance of Shuanghuanglian, is only allowed to share the price of HA medicine shares The Shanghai Pharmaceutical Institute announced that "Chinese patent medicine Shuanghuanglian oral liquid can inhibit the new coronavirus", and the national double play of the January 31st Huanglian has been staged As a result, the share price of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd soared By February 6, Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd had recorded multiple price limits, with a price earnings ratio of 138.55 times, nearly 3.6 times of the industry's average price earnings ratio On February 6, Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd issued the notice of abnormal stock trading fluctuation and risk warning, pointing out that the sales revenue of Shuanghuanglian series products in 2019 accounts for about 2% of the company's overall revenue, and the series products have little impact on the company's overall performance Around February 6, "Shuanghuanglian anti epidemic" was questioned by many authoritative experts On February 7, the share price of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd ended soaring and has been falling ever since As of 11:30 a.m on February 17, the share price of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd fell to 4.61 yuan, which is close to the share price before the event of "Shuanghuanglian" However, the price earnings ratio of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd is still as high as 107.53 times Due to the continuous drop in profits and insufficient competitiveness, Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd has almost stepped on all the "thunder" in the pharmaceutical industry, and its current performance and enterprise prospects are not enough to support the 100 times P / E ratio of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd The company's 2019 annual performance forecast previously released by Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd shows that the company's 2019 performance is expected to decrease by 270 million yuan to 310 million yuan, 78% to 90% year-on-year The half year report of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd in 2019 shows that the current revenue is 5.516 billion yuan and the net profit loss is 42 million yuan Earlier in 2018, the revenue and net profit of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd fell into the dilemma of double decline The current revenue was 10.814 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.02%; the net profit was 346 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.95% As a well-known pharmaceutical company, Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd once created a "Harbin Pharmaceutical myth" with 1.1 billion yuan of advertising expenses and 8 billion yuan of sales performance But in the new era, the old pattern of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd has long been ineffective In 2018, the revenue of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd was 10.8 billion, the R & D expense was only 137 million, the R & D expense rate was 1.27%, ranking the 23rd from the bottom among 201 A-share pharmaceutical enterprises! It is not surprising that the low R & D directly leads to the lack of product competitiveness and the continuous reduction of profits In addition, Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd is also very sure to step on various "thunders" of the new medical reform: 1 The antibiotic restriction policy brings challenges to antibiotic manufacturers, and 2.9 billion of the 6 billion pharmaceutical industry revenue of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd comes from anti infection 2 The negative news of medical insurance fee control and traditional Chinese medicine injection make the traditional Chinese medicine injection have a good reputation with the rest of the world 3 In the process of volume purchase, the cost competition becomes more and more fierce, but the biological preparation products of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd are not winning the bid 4 "Two vote system", drug zero plus, medicine e-commerce and so on, the drug circulation industry has become difficult, and the development bottleneck of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd in the two major businesses of retail and commercial allocation has appeared The mess left to CITIC department after HaoQi Dividend: there are only 600 million cash left on the account, although the performance is not good, Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd has Haoqi dividend for three years In 2015, 2016 and 2017, RMB 4.46 billion was allocated for three consecutive years, and the dividend cash accounted for 75.3% of the annual distributable profits After three years of haotou, by 2018, the distributable profit of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd has reached - 199 million yuan In 2017, the dividend of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd reached 1.272 billion yuan, accounting for 312.67% of the net profit of that year In 2017, the dividend ratio of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd was 4.65 times that of the second-largest pharmaceutical company If something goes wrong, there must be a demon Dr Ding Huiren, an expert and audit expert of China Association of certified tax agents, once analyzed and pointed out that the dividend of Harbin Pharmaceutical Group, the former major shareholder of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., might be "afraid of new shareholders to share their previous profits" According to the data, the dividend of 4.460 billion yuan of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd in three years, the majority shareholder, Harbin Pharmaceutical Group, which originally accounted for 46.49% of the shares, roughly shared nearly half of the 2.073 billion yuan of cash It's just that this kind of rare and heroic dividend has left a "mess" for the "receiver" of CITIC: there are only 600 million cash left on the account, 300 million short-term loans, and 300 million more payables than receivables! Such fund situation, but to turn over a 10 billion revenue plate! CITIC department's self rescue: in the face of the decline in performance, CITIC department, which took over the control of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., also tried to rescue itself However, Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd did not strengthen research and development, but also made a substantial expansion in the original product line Instead, it chose to acquire the American health products company and take the old road of big investment advertising again In 2019, Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd acquired 0.1% of GNC 40.1% of the U.S shares at a price of about $300 million, becoming its largest shareholder Founded in 1935, GNC, a world health product giant with a business history of more than 80 years, has a high reputation and can produce more than 1500 kinds of health products However, there are different opinions in the industry The industry's biggest concerns come from GNC's high debt ratio and revenue performance that has been hit by online e-commerce in recent years Since 2015, GNC has suffered a double decline in share price and operating profit In 2016 and 2017, net profit lost US $286 million and US $149 million respectively In the past two years, the company has been in a state of insolvency As of the third quarter of 2019, its total liabilities reached US $1.648 billion, with a debt ratio of 98% At the same time, GNC's business structure is very dependent on its own retail terminals In 2018, GNC's revenue from retail terminals accounted for about 70% of the total revenue In the same period, the proportion of GNC revenue from e-commerce is only 7.6% In recent years, the development of e-commerce in North America has caused a huge impact on the offline operation of GNC At the same time, according to the public data, the advertising expenses in the first half of 2019 increased by 265.71% year on year Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd has embarked on the old road of big investment and marketing At present, it seems that the transformation of health care products of Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd is not effective The "Harbin Pharmaceutical model" of that year is obviously no longer effective Whether the self-help road of CITIC Group can revive Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd still faces great uncertainty Penicillin