Six trends in the field of health care through five dimensions of declining birth rate and nine groups of data

Wen Xiaoxu On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the operation of national economy in 2019 In 2019, 14.65 million people were born, down 3.8% year on year The data is much more optimistic than the previous Online estimate of 11 million people Although there is a decline, the decline is not significant In fact, the population structure changes at both ends of the decline of birth rate and the aggravation of aging have already appeared, which has also attracted the attention of the medical and health industry The industry generally believes that the most affected areas are maternal and infant health and elderly medical care However, there are many different dimensions of population structure, including gender, region, education level, marriage and childbearing status, and many dimensions are interactive Therefore, from the perspective of population change, the change of demand side of health care should not be limited to the birth rate and aging, but should have a more comprehensive perspective In this paper, we will look at population change from five dimensions: age structure, marriage and childbirth status, education level, urban and rural structure, and consumption level, and collect public data in the past decade, so that these dimensions have more real support After considering the intricate relationships of these dimensions, we will look forward to the changes in the healthcare industry By the end of 2019, the total population of mainland China has exceeded 1.4 billion, an increase of 4.67 million over the end of last year, and the total population is still on the rise However, according to official estimates, the total population will peak around 2030 and continue to decline thereafter Before the trend of population decline, we saw many changes in the internal structure "" First, of course, the industry has paid attention to the birth rate and aging for a long time From the perspective of the change of birth population in the past decade, with the implementation of "single second child" in 2013 and "comprehensive second child" in 2015, there were birth peaks in 2014 and 2016-2017 respectively, but the peak soon passed In 2018, the birth population and birth rate dropped significantly, even to a lower level than in 2010 In 2019, the birth population and birth rate continue to decline, but not by much This shows that under the encouragement of policies, families willing to have a second child have already had a baby Many families are still reluctant to have a second child, even if they are faced with preferential policies in terms of childbearing and taxation Along with the decrease of birth rate, there is also aging In the past ten years, the number of the elderly over 60 years old has increased by 57.09 million, and the proportion of the total population has increased from 8.9% to 12.6% With the decrease of birth rate, the problem of aging will be aggravated in the future "" Why is the birth rate down? We should return to the starting point of life, that is, the attention to women of childbearing age and the combination of men and women When the National Bureau of statistics is making statistics on women of childbearing age, the standard is 15-49 years old according to their physiological characteristics However, the official data shows that among the women who have given birth, the most age groups are 20-24 years old, 24-29 years old and 30-34 years old Considering the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy, the probability of giving birth to women aged 35-39 may also increase We regard the above four age groups as the main childbearing age In China, the national census is carried out in the year with "0" ending number, which includes detailed statistics of population by gender and age The seventh national census has not yet been carried out, so the most accurate number of women of childbearing age is still from the sixth national census in 2010 Based on the number of women aged 0-49 in 2010, we have made a trend derivation chart: As can be seen from the above figure, the main women of childbearing age are estimated to be 219 million in 2010, 196 million in 2020 and 150 million in 2030 Over the past 20 years, 70 million women of childbearing age will be cut At the same time, the gender ratio of men and women is increasing in the population structure As shown in the figure above, the highest ratio of men to women in the marriageable age group is only 105 in 2010, while by 2030, when the population is mainly after 00, the highest ratio of men to women is expected to be 119 The National Bureau of statistics will carry out 1% population sampling survey or 1 ‰ population change survey in the year with non-zero tail number According to the survey data of 2011-2018, the ratio of men and women aged 0-4 is still between 113-119 every year, so they will also face the problem of high gender ratio after 10 years The result of the high proportion of men and women may be that some people are "unmarried", but the following data show that many people are "reluctant to marry" According to the data of the Ministry of Civil Affairs (Note: since the Ministry of Civil Affairs has not released the data for 2019, the latest data is 2018), in recent years, the number of marriages began to plummet after reaching a peak in 2013, and by 2018, it had decreased to 10.14 million pairs, a decrease of 3.33 million pairs compared with 2013 Of course, the number of marriages has something to do with the decrease of the population of the right age But at the same time, the marriage rate is also falling at the same time, which shows that people's willingness to marry has indeed decreased What's more, while the marriage rate continues to decline, the divorce rate has been rising This shows that people's concept of marriage and love has found a huge change, no longer taking the traditional marriage and family as the main life destination "" The data of the first two dimensions means severe population situation, but things are not always one-sided For example, we can see from the data of the Ministry of education that the level of culture and education in China is continuously improving (Note: since the Ministry of education has not released the data of 2019, the latest data is 2018) We have collected four data: the consolidation rate of nine-year compulsory education, the gross enrollment rate of senior high school, and the graduates of junior college and postgraduate, which can reflect the basic situation of China's basic education and higher education In terms of basic education, in 2011, the net enrollment rate of primary school-age children in China has reached 99.79%, that is to say, almost all school-age children have entered primary school Since 2012, the Ministry of education has published the "consolidation rate of nine-year compulsory education" in the statistical bulletin, that is, the percentage of junior high school graduates in the number of students entering the first grade of primary school, which can reflect the completion of nine-year compulsory education Since 2012, the data has been steadily improving In terms of higher education, the number of college graduates and graduate students has continued to grow With the increase of high-quality labor force, more employment options, and the ability to create social wealth are also improving "" For a country, knowledge enhances its national strength For individuals, knowledge changes fate The overall improvement of cultural level has brought about changes in employment structure With the improvement of education and economic development, more and more rural people are entering into urban employment As can be seen from the figure above, the number of urban employment has risen in a straight line, while the number of rural employment has declined in a straight line; since 2014, the number of urban employment has exceeded the number of rural employment In 2019, the urban employment population is nearly 100 million more than in 2010 The change of urban and rural employment structure will inevitably bring about the change of urbanization The figure above shows that in 2011, the urbanization rate of permanent residents exceeded 50% for the first time, and then increased year by year By 2019, it has exceeded 60% Over the past 10 years, the urban permanent population has increased by 175 million At the same time, the state also promotes the agricultural transfer population who has the ability to have stable employment and life in cities and towns to settle down in cities, and has the same rights and obligations as urban residents In the next decade, urbanization will continue to be a major trend for both permanent and registered residents "" The improvement of cultural level and the increase of urban employment population mean that the income is richer, the consumption ability is stronger, and the consumption consciousness has changed As shown in the figure, the per capita disposable income of the whole country is increasing year by year, among which the price factor should be considered However, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the per capita disposable income maintained a real growth rate of 5% - 7.5% in 2014-2019, even after deducting the price factor At the same time, the proportion of per capita consumption expenditure and health care consumption expenditure is also increasing The increase of health care consumption may be related to the increase of health care cost, but it also shows that people's health awareness is increasing Of course, when we collect the data of the above five dimensions, we can see more than one phenomenon of health care awareness enhancement In the next part, we will take a comprehensive look at the complex relationship between these dimensions, and then deduce its impact on the health care industry In order to express the relationship and trend of 5 dimensions and 9 groups of data more intuitively, we use pictures to show them according to the Convention In the figure above, we demonstrate six social development trends according to the changes of various dimensions of population structure So, what do these trends have to do with the healthcare industry? "" For example, according to the data of the sixth national census, in 2010, there were more than 600000 men than women in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups According to the calculation of the number of people aged 0-4 and 5-9 in 2010, by 2030, there will be more than 6 million men than women in the two age groups of 20-24 and 25-29 The gap between the two sets of data is no longer of the same magnitude Coupled with the change of marriage concept, more people are reluctant to marry, and unmarried men and women may become a huge group at that time How to maintain their physical and mental health is something the health industry needs to consider It is understood that in this year's CES international consumer electronics exhibition, sexual health first came to the stage, showing the General Assembly's tolerance for the gender goods industry In China, although the gender products industry has some development in recent years, the market development is still limited by the influence of traditional culture However, under the catalysis of the above background, if the industry can develop more humanized products and expand more appropriate sales channels, it will usher in a new round of opportunities "" While the concept of marriage and childbearing changes, it means that the family has more modes of composition, mainly including: ① Family of three generations: a family composed of parents, son-in-law (or daughter-in-law) and grandchildren; ② Family of two generations: a family of three consisting of parents and unmarried children, and a family of four formed under the two child policy; ③ Small family: DINK family unwilling to have children after marriage, single parent family formed by increasing divorce rate, single family of unmarried men and women Among them, the first two types of families are traditional families, and most of the current family health management products are aimed at them However, with the increase of small families, how to provide health management for them? We think we should see these aspects: In the real life scene of small families, dietary health is one of the risk points If they eat out for a long time, high fat, high salt and high sugar are the important factors that cause obesity, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and other metabolic diseases and tumors Health China action (2019-2030) has put forward a series of goals for reasonable diet of residents In the process of promotion, the medical and health industry can also design health management products and strengthen health science popularization for such small families In addition, in the face of diseases, especially major diseases, small families are relatively weak in anti risk ability, economic spending, disease care, there is greater pressure Therefore, commercial health insurance can establish a corresponding security system for these small families "" With the increasing of aging, it is the industry consensus that the pension industry will usher in golden opportunities Health care for the aged includes prevention, diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation, among which there are more opportunities for drugs and devices for the treatment of geriatric diseases, rehabilitation clinics, elderly care, real estate for the aged, etc Cardiovascular, orthopedic, tumor, etc in the elderly