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At present, the price and cost of electrolytic aluminum market are inverted, the industry loss is large, some enterprises have stopped production and maintenance, and the downstream demand of the aluminum market is weakening significantly, the orders of terminal enterprises are seriously shrinking, and the overall situation of supply and demand is weak, the aluminum market lacks substantial benefits at this stage, and the actual decline space on the cost side support is limited
.
Basis: Shanghai A00 aluminum 13800 yuan / ton, compared with 1901 discount 170 yuan / ton
.
Spot merchants reported a discount of 40 yuan / ton, which has remained stable in the past two weeks, at the level
of the central axis since 2009.
The price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai is 100 yuan / ton, which has rebounded in the past week, and is at a high level
in the range of 2012.
Inventory: The last warehouse receipt was 612393 tons, which has fallen by 30% since the end of April, still at a record high; Aluminum inventories in the previous period this week fell by 12,337 tons from last week to 801705 tons
.
Domestic consumption of aluminum ingot stocks totaled 1.
538 million tons, down 45,000 tons from last week, and a cumulative decline of about 33%
since the end of March.
LME inventories 1051425 tonnes, up slightly from last week, and the decline is expected to end at the end of 2013, but they are still at their lowest level
since 2008.
Theoretical profit: the theoretical loss of imports is 2700 yuan / ton, which is at the low level in recent years; The theoretical production profit margin of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level in recent years, and it has fallen slightly since the end of October
.
The price difference between aluminum rod and aluminum ingot has generally continued to stabilize in mid-July, and is currently at the low level of the axis in recent years
.
The theoretical export profit of aluminum has consistently maintained the high level of recent years since 2018, and the export of aluminum products has been higher year-on-year during the same period, but the risk point is that once Sino-US trade is further intensified, it will seriously affect the original domestic supply and demand pattern
.
