Soybean meal or will form a weak trend of peak season volatility.

Soybean meal: Soybean imports increased, soybean meal supply under pressureWnTin June, China's soybean imports were 7.25 million tons, a record for the same period, after saying goodbye to a small number of imports before April and a large number of North American soybeans arriving in Hong Kong in June, China's soybean imports in June mainly in South America.. WnTas of June 28, China's main port soybean stocks are 6.213 million tons, stocks of soybeans theoretically crushable soybean meal 465.975 million tons, this figure, although the same period last year, although there was a decrease of 490,000 tons, but combined with the second half of the year's poor soybean imports, the current theoretical pressure volume has been compared with April this year 3.51 million tons of nearly 30 percent recovery.. WnTbased on soybean imports and port inventories, as of June 28, China's major ports soybean stocks increased by 440,000 tons from May 31, while China's total imports reached 7.25 million tons, June soybean theoretical consumption reached 6.81 million tons, it is inferred that the June full-month Chinese soybean meal supply theory may reach 5.38 million tons, a record, even if this part of soybean meal will not be squeezed in time. The supply of soybean meal will create significant pressure on the soybean meal market.. WnTin July, China's soybean arrival forecast reached 6.5 million tons, this figure also set a record for the same period, according to market tracking, the end of June, China's oil plant start-up rate of about 55%, if can guarantee a high start-up level, then the market in July full month soybean meal theory supply of 5.14 million tons. The supply of soybean meal, which is higher than the historical period, will put great pressure on the market.. WnTsoybean meal: downstream recovery slowed down, demand growth rate is insufficientWnTJune, pig farming industry as a whole is in a relatively stable stage, in May by the impact of the national frozen pork storage support, pig farming profits returned to break-even line, and in June, farming profits are still running around the break-even line, the market did not appear a further strong recovery trend.. WnTas of the end of June, the national average price of pigs out of the column reached 14 yuan / kg, up about 2% year-on-year. The national pig grain ratio reached 5.98:1, and in mid-month has returned to the break-even line of 6:1, up 4.3% from the same period last year. National pork prices rebounded to 22.58 yuan/kg, up 1.16% from the same period last year. Although the aquaculture industry in the recovery, but we see that the price of piglets at 28.04 yuan / kg, lower than the same period last year 30.21 yuan / kg, down 7.18% YoY,WnT market farmers' willingness to fill the column is not strong, this can be seen from the pig stock. According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, as of May this year, the number of pig stocks in China was 448 million, a decrease of nearly 5% compared with the 461 million head in the same period last year, while the pig stock was lower than the 2011 level of the big bear market in the soybean meal market, and the number of pig stocks in the same period of the same period was 452 million. . WnT will further weigh on the willingness of farming companies to fill the bar as current pig-breeding profits end the upward trend. The next two months, is this year's pig column last chance, if the pig stock remains relatively small level, will be a great impact on the market. . WnT according to the supplementstructure calculation, in the next two months, the early feed pig will enter the critical period of growth, the demand for high-protein feed will be significantly increased, it is very likely to enter the peak demand for soybean meal during the year, but from the current market pig storage column level and pig price trend to infer that the market feed demand growth is expected to lag far behind the same period last year. . WnT soybean meal: the recent rise in water expansion, short-term difficult to change WnT the recent soybean meal 1401 contract than soybean meal 1309 contract water has exceeded the 300 yuan mark, before the September contract into the spot month, such a large-scale water rise, rare in history. This section focuses on the analysis of the formation of recent soybean meal contract high-rise water and the later trend of the projection. . WnT first, the soybean meal 1401 contract and the soybean meal 1309 contract reflect the price performance of a completely different market. Soybean meal 1309 contract basically reflects this year's South American new beans and the United States after the import of soybeans squeezed soybean meal, we know that due to this year's South American soybean harvest, should be a strong suppression of market prices, but by the Brazilian port transport difficulties and increasing inflation in Argentina, resulting in South America's supply of soybeans global soybean strain, soybean demand market is still a large part of the market due to the supply of U.S. soybeans, which caused the U.S. soybean contract prices in recent months high. Based on the June 28 U.S. bean 07 contract of 1561 cents/bushel, the cost of pressing imports into China will reach 3,776 yuan/tonne. . WnT and soybean meal 1401 contract, speculation is more gradually arriving in Hong Kong of Brazilian soybeans and some of the new U.S. soybeans pressed products, in theory, South American soybeans should be lower than U.S. soybeans, and the above described by The South American itself factors, resulting in the current U.S. soybean contract High, but it can be expected that most of the backlog of problems will be resolved sooner or later, once resolved, will be more pressure on the price of foreign soybeans, when the U.S. soybean 11 contract is likely to face the supply of South America and North America's two main soybean production areas, which will cause further pressure on the long-term contract. As things stand, at 1249 cents/bushel, the cost of the soybean meal 1401 contract is at 3381 yuan/tonne. . WnT second, from a historical point of view, in the last five years, in addition to 2011, soybean meal 09 contract than 01 contract in June-August between the water will be close to 250 points, and the delivery month rise of water reached about 300 yuan, which there is still a factor "feed demand" ", that is, in the third quarter of the purchase year, the downstream market demand for soybean meal will reach the largest stage of the year, and around January, just in time for the pig out of the column season, the market demand for soybean meal will enter the lowest valley of the year, when the market demand for soybean meal pessimistic, for soybean meal prices will also form a clear pressure. . WnT expects the high water level of the soybean meal 1309 contract to remain high over the next two months, especially after the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its end-of-season inventory report, pushing soybean meal up to higher levels in recent months. And the long-term contract in the U.S. bean 11 contract trend is not optimistic and downstream demand is light situation, it is difficult to have a big action. Therefore, the current spread level of 300 yuan, is likely to be further expanded. . WnT Soybean Meal: Corporate hedging opportunities, limited opportunities for speculation WnT mentioned above a large increase in the supply of soybean meal, and soybean meal demand increase sharply less than the same period last year, in July soybean meal is likely to have a relatively soft trend in the peak season. From the graph, the soybean meal 1401 contract in the medium below the support in the 3120 line near, above the strong resistance at the 3240 line. . WnT for the later operation, into the third quarter, soybean meal demand enterprises will gradually enter the demand season, according to the enterprise's own operating conditions, soybean meal procurement costs locked, soybean meal 1401 contract back to 3150-3200 line to buy the value, the use of futures positions instead of spot inventory, with the spot market procurement, in the futures market gradually closed. . WnT for investors, the future will usher in the pre-peak speculation stage of soybean meal demand, due to the relatively pessimistic fundamentals of this year, a substantial increase in upstream supply, a certain degree of reduction in downstream demand, soybean meal is likely to form a weak trend of peak season, which is difficult for speculators to say, suggest investors keep short thinking, short-selling near the 3200 line, pay attention to July 20 before the soybean meal 1401 contract can return to the 3000 line. . WnT long-term air tickets in late July need to focus first on risk. . WnT Soybean Meal: Soybean imports increased, soybean meal supply under pressure WnT in June, China's soybean imports were 7.25 million tons, a record for the same period, after saying goodbye to a small number of imports before April and a large number of North American soybeans arriving in May, China's soybean imports in June were dominated by South American soybeans. . WnT as of June 28, China's main port soybean stocks are 6.213 million tons, stocks of soybeans theoretically crushable soybean meal 465.975 million tons, this figure, although the same period last year, although there was a decrease of 490,000 tons, but combined with the second half of the year's poor soybean imports, the current theoretical pressure volume has been compared with April this year 3.51 million tons of nearly 30 percent recovery. . WnT based on soybean imports and port inventories, as of June 28, China's major ports soybean stocks increased by 440,000 tons from May 31, while China's total imports reached 7.25 million tons, June soybean theoretical consumption reached 6.81 million tons, it is inferred that the June full-month Chinese soybean meal supply theory may reach 5.38 million tons, a record, even if this part of soybean meal will not be squeezed in time. The supply of soybean meal will create significant pressure on the soybean meal market. . WnT in July, China's soybean arrival forecast reached 6.5 million tons, this figure also set a record for the same period, according to market tracking, the end of June, China's oil plant start-up rate of about 55%, if can guarantee a high start-up level, then the market in July full month soybean meal theory supply of 5.14 million tons. The supply of soybean meal, which is higher than the historical period, will put great pressure on the market. . WnT soybean meal: downstream recovery slowed down, demand growth rate is insufficient WnT June, pig farming industry as a whole is in a relatively stable stage, in May by the impact of the national frozen pork storage support, pig farming profits returned to break-even line, and in June, farming profits are still running around the break-even line, the market did not appear a further strong recovery trend. . WnT as of the end of June, the national average price of pigs out of the column reached 14 yuan / kg, up about 2% year-on-year. The national pig grain ratio reached 5.98:1, and in mid-month has returned to the break-even line of 6:1, up 4.3% from the same period last year. National pork prices rebounded to 22.58 yuan/kg, up 1.16% from the same period last year. Although the aquaculture industry in the recovery, but we see that the price of piglets at 28.04 yuan / kg, lower than the same period last year 30.21 yuan / kg, down 7.18% YoY, WnT market farmers' willingness to fill the column is not strong, this can be seen from the pig stock. According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, as of May this year, the number of pig stocks in China was 448 million, a decrease of nearly 5% compared with the 461 million head in the same period last year, while the pig stock was lower than the 2011 level of the big bear market in the soybean meal market, and the number of pig stocks in the same period of the same period was 452 million. . WnT will further weigh on the willingness of farming companies to fill the bar as current pig-breeding profits end the upward trend. The next two months, is this year's pig column last chance, if the pig stock remains relatively small level, will be a great impact on the market. . WnT according to the supplementstructure calculation, in the next two months, the early feed pig will enter the critical period of growth, the demand for high-protein feed will be significantly increased, it is very likely to enter the peak demand for soybean meal during the year, but from the current market pig storage column level and pig price trend to infer that the market feed demand growth is expected to lag far behind the same period last year. . WnT soybean meal: the recent rise in water expansion, short-term difficult to change WnT the recent soybean meal 1401 contract than soybean meal 1309 contract water has exceeded the 300 yuan mark, before the September contract into the spot month, such a large-scale water rise, rare in history. This section focuses on the analysis of the formation of recent soybean meal contract high-rise water and the later trend of the projection. . WnT first, the soybean meal 1401 contract and the soybean meal 1309 contract reflect the price performance of a completely different market. The soybean meal 1309 contract basically reflects the new beans in South America and the beans that were squeezed after the import of American chen beans this year.