The market coal price continued to climb to near the “policy red line”, the downstream acceptance of high coal prices began to fall, coupled with the rumors of Guangdong loosening some imported coal, the end of steam coal futures delivery, and the increase in railway port traffic, etc.
, the market wait-and-see sentiment Gradually, coal prices have stopped rising and temporarily stabilized.
After the market continued to wait and see, the seller was still unable to carry the buyer, and the competent authorities required measures to increase supply and limit prices, which were taking effect, and coal prices at the port dropped slightly.
The market purchases cautiously and the spot price drops
The policy of guaranteeing supply and limiting prices has become stronger, and the superiors proposed to increase the railway transportation volume and increase the coal storage in Qingang.
At present, the average daily transportation volume of the Daqin line is 1.
25 million tons.
After the detour stops, the transportation volume of the Tanghu Line is 230,000 tons, which is generally maintained at the upper-middle level.
In the downstream, the current power plant inventory remains at a relatively high level, and the daily consumption is at a low-to-medium level.
Data show that on November 1, the inventory of key power plants nationwide rose to 102.
14 million tons, with 28 days available, and the number of coal stocks increased by 26 million tons compared with September.
From the perspective of coal storage and daily consumption in coastal power plants, neither has reached a high level, and the number of available days is not low.
The restrictions on imported coal are conducive to the improvement of the domestic market.
Some users who used to pull Australian coal have switched to northern ports to inquire and pull coal, which has increased the amount of coal discharged into northern ports.
According to the data of imported coal in October, it has decreased by 46% year-on-year.
Some power plants have exhausted their coal import quotas.
In the last one and a half months of this year, users in coastal areas will shift their focus to the domestic market.
Under the current background of low daily consumption and staggered production by high-energy-consuming enterprises, the enthusiasm of power plants to move northward is still high.
After the government introduced measures to guarantee supply and stabilize prices, market transactions have weakened compared with the previous period, spot quotations have slightly loosened, and actual transactions have not been many.
Over time, the upstream and downstream supply-demand relationship has reversed, and the market mentality has changed.
It took too long for the market coal price to rise to the red zone, and the news of some power plants increasing the quota of imported coal, as well as the news of the country’s measures to ensure supply, increase transportation, and underprice, continue to intensify the downstream wait-and-see sentiment, and the continued rise in spot coal Coal prices have played a deterrent effect, and it is inevitable that coal prices will fall at a high level.
At the end of the month, coal prices still have a chance to rebound
Although many provinces and cities have carried out staggered production, winter is the traditional peak season for coal use.
After large areas of East China and Central China cool down, the load of civil electricity will increase; especially when the dry season comes, hydropower operation will weaken, and outsourced electricity will increase.
The pressure has increased significantly.
The daily consumption of coastal power plants will increase, driving coal consumption to accelerate and demand rebounding.
With the accelerated release of advanced production capacity, there will be a certain increase in the "Three West" coal export, but some of the new resources need to support the Northeast and North China power plants, and the incremental space for the ports in the Bohai Sea Rim is limited.
Superimposed coal mine safety and environmental protection inspections, some coal mines were shut down, and coal prices at the production sites were high; while the shipping was upside down, the enthusiasm of mine stations and traders to ship water coal was affected, and the increase in railway coal shipments was limited, giving "peak winter" Bring a severe test.
Safety and environmental inspections carried out upstream, coupled with the need for some resources to be supplied directly to power plants, have affected coal production and delivery to a certain extent, and the overall supply release is limited, which also greatly restricts the amount of coal transported in water.
It has been half a month since the Daqin line resumed normal transportation, but some low-sulfur high-quality coal is still in short supply, prompting coal prices to remain firm, and port prices are expected to have limited decline.
At present, the demand for heating is good, the coal producing area is queued up, and the coal price in the producing area has risen slightly.
Shanxi and Shaanxi have begun safety inspections, and prices in Shanxi have been relatively strong.
In addition, some mines in Mongolia have increased their prices, resulting in higher shipping costs.
This month, winter storage and transportation, superimposed upstream safety inspections, strict control of imported coal, slow increase in port stocks, etc.
, will help coal prices continue to be strong.
It is expected that coal prices will still have a chance to rise by the end of this month.
The situation in the coastal coal market is optimistic
Based on a comprehensive analysis of current market conditions and restrictions on imported coal, it is expected that before the end of the year, the port coal market will remain optimistic and coal prices will remain high.
In October, my country imported 13.
72 million tons of coal, a decrease of 46% year-on-year.
It is expected that the amount of coal imported this year will reach 276 million tons, a decrease of 24 million tons from last year.
Although the Northeast region has appropriately increased the coal import quota, the main consideration is the shortage of coal demand for heating in the Northeast.
While the inventory of power plants in the southern coastal areas of my country continues to be high, my country's coal import restriction policy will not change much before the end of the year.
The decrease in imported coal and the cessation of unloading of Australian coal have brought benefits to the coastal coal market.
Users in East China and South China will shift their focus to the domestic market, and high-quality coal such as Shenhua and Dongmei have become popular products for users.
In the cold winter, the demand for electricity coal is promising.
The state has intensified the implementation of macro policies, expanded domestic demand, and continued to release the "six stability" and "six guarantees" policy measures.
Towards the end of the year, industrial enterprises rushed to the end of the construction period and sprinted towards the end of the year.
The recovery of industrial electricity load increased, which led to an increase in coal demand.
Rainfall decreases, the southern region gradually enters a dry season, hydropower operations weaken, power purchases from coastal provinces and cities decrease, thermal power increases, power plants’ daily consumption will slowly recover, air conditioning loads in Central and East China will increase, and coal demand will see rapid growth .
The incremental release of coal is not fast, and there is still a tight supply situation, driving coal prices to maintain a mid-to-high level.
Transfer from: Qinhuangdao Coal Net
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