China Coatings network
: March 27, by the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association sponsored by the "spring 2015 nitrogen fertilizer market situation analysis meeting" held in Beijing. The meeting predicted that nitrogen fertilizer production and sales will improve in 2015, but due to a significant reduction in market resources this spring, local markets may be tight supply.
Gu Zongqin, chairman of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, pointed out in the theme report entitled "To do a good job in spring tillage and fertilizer supply, and strive to ensure agricultural production" that this year's nitrogen fertilizer overcapacity will improve, agricultural demand will stabilize, industrial demand increased, export space expanded, it is expected that the spring nitrogen fertilizer production and marketing work will face a relatively good situation.
According to the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the amount of resources decreased by about 10% year-on-year this year. Data show that urea production decreased by 1.15 million tons in 2014, exports increased by 5.35 million tons, and annual supply decreased by 6.36 million tons year-on-year. Consumption increased by 1.5 million tons year-on-year. In 2014, not only did the stock accumulate in the previous period, but it also consumed most of the urea that should have been transferred to 2015. On the demand side, urea agricultural demand is expected to remain stable in 2015, with industrial demand growing at a rate of 6% to 8%. It is estimated that industrial demand for urea was 16 million tons in 2015, an increase of 1 million tons year-on-year. The main increments come from artificial panels, pyroteks, cement flue gas denitrification, vehicle urea and so on. It is understood that before the spring of 2011 also appeared a significant reduction in the amount of resources, urea prices began to pick up in April of that year.
Jianying, director of industrial development department of China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, believes that the reduction of intermediate turnover and the improvement of logistics efficiency will also become the new normal affecting the nitrogen fertilizer market. It is understood that at present, the Northeast, Northwest, North China, South China and other areas of spring fertilizer more concentrated, has appeared to varying degrees of low social inventory, the market supply and demand tight situation.
Su Jianying said that with the acceleration of the marketization process, it is expected that in the future, tax, gas prices, electricity prices, freight rates and other preferential policies will have a certain degree of adjustment, will lead to a substantial increase in nitrogen fertilizer production and circulation costs. From the current raw material market, the price of raw material coal in spring remained stable, the cost of coal head enterprises changed little. From April 1st, the stock gas and incremental gas will go hand in hand, which will lead to a further increase in the cost of nitrogen fertilizer enterprises.
for international urea prices, which are of widespread concern to the industry, CRU senior analyst Zhu Yu expects international market prices to bottom out in the second quarter and swing at low levels, rebounding around July. He also said that in 2015-2017, the new international urea production capacity will enter a period of rapid release, so China's urea market share in international trade in the next 1 to 2 years will face more international competition, high-cost production capacity is facing withdrawal and integration.
meeting, leaders from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce and other relevant ministries and trade associations, as well as fertilizer enterprises, industry media more than 300 representatives, on the spring nitrogen fertilizer market trends, marketing model innovation, international market development and other topics for in-depth exchanges and discussions.