Star future capital management Tao: 2019, I am optimistic about the opportunity of healthcare entrepreneurship!

Abstract: cold winter helps you freeze your rivals, practice your internal skills, open your mind, and welcome the spring of healthcare venture capital in 2018 The common feeling of most people in the venture capital industry is that the market is getting colder and colder With the arrival of spring 2019, it is still chilly, and it seems that there is no trend of warming up However, according to Guan Tao, President of star capital of Fosun Group, 2019 is a good opportunity for healthcare venture capital Guan Tao has more than ten years of experience in venture capital and venture capital in TMT & healthcare industry He was a management partner and member of the Investment Committee of Shenzhen sharing investment The investment projects include Zhenyou technology, Nanfang Yingu, xinzhengxin, Weirui medical, meinian health, Suzhou prirui, Jicheng medical, etc Guan Tao put forward a positive view on 2019 healthcare venture capital, please read: according to a negative but vivid statement, the world has started a worse stage than who, to see who collapses first China, the United States, Europe and Japan have their own pressures and difficulties, and the stock market is the most obvious indicator From the perspective of capital, the new regulations cut off the fund-raising channels of many master funds and fund companies from the upstream The proportion of RMB fund-raising dropped significantly, and many funds slowed down or even stopped investment cases More than a year ago, some fund companies with high sensitivity in the industry began to focus on fund-raising, reduce investment and increase exit But by the time most of the funds or start-ups respond, the market has become very difficult to raise funds In terms of policies, with the implementation of the "4 + 7" volume procurement policy, the market has made a drastic adjustment, especially the pharmaceutical enterprises have entered the downward stage of overall adjustment Recently, I participated in an activity of mobile medical industry entrepreneurial community Compared with most of the entrepreneurs who participated five years ago, they are full of confidence Now many entrepreneurs show a pessimistic attitude towards the industry They feel that the medical industry is a very difficult industry to be reformed and innovated If there is no entrepreneurship, stop the entrepreneurship plan now If there is already entrepreneurship, it is better to continue financing as much as possible, and prepare for the winter or even bankruptcy As a health care investor who has experienced the rise and adjustment, I have been thinking recently: is there really little market opportunity? Should we adjust our investment strategy? It's not that bad, especially in the health sector First of all, anti cycle is the characteristic of medical industry The most basic element of economic activity is the relationship between supply and demand When the market gets worse and demand falls, economic activity will naturally reduce its vitality But the medical and health industry is the most anti cyclical industry in the world The reason is simple When I have limited funds and lack of confidence, I can reduce high consumption, but I need medical services In macroeconomics, the final inflation figure of a society is the consumption growth rate of the medical and health industry No matter what the level of medical and health care in any society is, people always want better medical and health services In 2018, I talked with a medical service group on the west coast in the United States Their chief medical officer said that our doctors will never be enough, patients will always complain that the service can be better and more detailed, so our growth momentum will always exist Therefore, when the market is not good, the basic needs in the field of health care must exist China's medical industry has a huge space There is still a lot of room for improvement in China's medical industry Many people think that there are fewer and fewer entrepreneurial opportunities in China's medical industry, and the medical devices are not easy to do, because it is easy to single product to the ceiling, and the service is cold, because the public system is still too strong, and the private high-end medical service is growing weakly, and now many companies have been bleeding in Hong Kong and many companies are still desperately catching up It's impossible for the former star R & D personnel to get huge angel investment Yes, these are all facts, but they are all problems Is there no chance? The medical and health industry is indeed a strong regulatory industry Some traditional practitioners in the medical industry are very easy to be led by the short-term changes of policies For example, today's strategy of multi-point practice, tomorrow's "4 + 7" volume procurement policy, and the day after tomorrow's discussion draft of the new registration and application regulations will appear You will focus on these policies But the continuity of these policies is really not enough If we only follow these strategies to see the problem, it is easy to overemphasize the short-term impact and ignore the long-term demand In fact, the policy may be adjusted in the short term, but the goal is to solve the contradiction and meet the long-term demand This is similar to the logic that China's communication industry completed independent innovation by replacing imports more than a decade ago and then went to the world In recent years, new drug companies began to appear, but the market share is far from enough The popularization rate of medical devices is also increasing, but the localization rate of most high-end products is still very low In terms of medical service, although there have been many high-quality private medical service institutions in the market in the past few years, most of them are concentrated in the first tier cities, and the influence of the market is very low As a large population and economy country like China, the health care industry must not be completely dependent on imports, so in fact, there are still many opportunities for Chinese companies, but the growth model will change How to change, we will discuss later Winter is the time to nurture great companies I always think that China's medical and health industry should learn more from Japan than the United States Because Japan's development experience in import substitution, aging, cost control, overseas expansion of pharmaceutical enterprises and other aspects is more reproducible In the process of aging in 1988-2010, in order to reduce the pressure of social medical cost, the Japanese government had a long-term continuous price reduction requirements for local pharmaceutical enterprises However, this strategy did not eliminate the local pharmaceutical enterprises in Japan, on the contrary, it forced the local pharmaceutical enterprises to continuously launch high margin products (innovative drugs), integrate and merge, and then expand overseas, leaving Takeda pharmaceutical and other good enterprises with international competitiveness In the long-term downturn of Japanese stock market, the performance of such companies is far better than that of the market See the figure below Cold winter helps you freeze your competitors For start-ups, cold winter is the time to help you eliminate vicious competitors In the past wave of medical venture capital boom, there are many disadvantages in the role of capital From my personal point of view, the influx of a large number of funds has made many companies that should not have received money have also raised funds But the real good company is facing more and more competitors, the human cost and other aspects are increasing rapidly, and the capital efficiency is extremely low Unlike the Internet industry, which seeks monopoly in essence, most of the companies in the medical industry have a slow development path It is difficult to defeat competitors through financial support in a short period of time and improve profits through monopoly Under this logic, the result of everyone's wealth is that they all work hard to improve market share and the competition is very inefficient And when winter comes, I think the truly competitive companies can continue to get support, but it's a good time to expand against the trend Of course, we also need to make some strategic adjustments Let's focus on my personal suggestions for the current market Return to fundamentals, first of all, improve standards In 2012, the main exhibition area of CMEF was occupied by more than a dozen leading companies, and hundreds of small companies were only in the simple temporary exhibition area, and their sales combined may not be as large as any company in the main exhibition hall Later, I gradually found that this is a miniature of China's medical entrepreneurship industry Because of the high level of supervision and the scattered market, many small companies can find a way to survive As a result of the industry's optimism, the entry of many capitals in the past few years has indeed given money to many companies whose technology or market standards are not so high In essence, we still think that each has its own way of survival and can grow savagely with certain local or regional advantages Market competition has entered the second half of the year, whether it is the accumulation of technical standards or operational capabilities Without truly high-level competitiveness, or even the comparative advantage of global competitors, it will be difficult for start-ups to obtain capital support When the wind stops, the "pig" will fall For start-ups that have not accumulated enough, they must have unique advantages from the beginning If the traditional main track is not good, we will break through on the edge and enter into new fields, but no matter how small the field is, the standard of technology or business logic must be very high Let investors believe that in your segment, you can develop better than the big companies in the market Everything returns to fundamentals, there is no accumulated business model, and there is almost no chance in the medical and health industry One of the characteristics of the medical industry is slow Whether it's new drug research and development, device application for registration certificate, or the accumulation of brand and operation ability of medical services, it will take time At present, the start-up companies must return to the products themselves, improve the positive competitiveness of products, do a good job in internal management, and practice their internal skills As a core founder, he should improve his ability and cognitive level in various ways Don't be a bottleneck in the company's development We should believe that the hard-working internal skill will play a huge role when the tuyere comes again In fact, those who follow the wind must die miserably, and to be fully prepared, "waiting for the wind" is the right way In winter, the field of medical and health care has always been a high threshold industry, and the number of start-ups can never be compared with the Internet industry On the other hand, China lacks world-class leading companies in the field of medical and health care, which is still quite different from developed markets such as the United States in terms of talent supply and industrial basis Therefore, it is impossible to have many leading enterprises in a long time Even if there are leading enterprises, M & A integration will be an inevitable important means Therefore, as a start-up company, I suggest that after careful analysis of its core competitiveness, we should carefully think about whether it is our own development, or whether it is the best way to be acquired by a leading company with strong synergy In other words, it may not be the acquisition, but the method of merger, which gathers talents, technology, market and other resources to form a truly competitive new company It's not easy It's a big challenge for founders and companies But I think at least we should be more open to discuss and explore methods This is not for simple sales revenue consolidation, but really for the case of complementary advantages Therefore, it is also a good way to keep an open mind, first of all, to enhance understanding, and then to consider the way of multi cooperation for a period of time We, Fosun capital, will design and launch some good methods to help this trend in 2019 Please pay attention and support When the cash flow market with more than one year's reserves is poor, cash is always the king I found that many founders are paying attention to the short-term change trend of macro-economy, looking forward to the easing of capital and the "recovery" of market, and think that the financing environment may be restored in the second half of the year That makes me