"Strong expectations" against "weak reality" coking coal hit a new high in March

Under the keynote of the policy of stable economic growth, on the second day of the opening of the Year of the Tiger, thermal coal drove the price of coking coal to a strong upward trend

Coking coal 'weak reality' spot price under pressure

Cao Ying, chief black analyst at SDIC Anxin Futures, pointed out that the overall coking coal market is expected to be oversupplied in February, domestic coking coal mines may experience pressure on sales and accumulation, and the current downstream demand performance will remain at a low level, and there will be no obvious get better

From the perspective of supply, Cao Ying said that the supply of coal mines is relatively normal, but under the background of limited production, it may cause accumulation of warehouses

However, once corresponding to upstream and downstream steel mills and coking enterprises, due to the stricter production restrictions imposed by the Winter Olympics, the overall pressure on domestic coking coal storage under on-demand replenishment will become more and more obvious, which has also led to the recent sales of domestic coking coal mines.

It is understood that the prices of coal types such as main coking coal and lean coal in Linfen, Shanxi have dropped by 230-350 yuan/ton recently, and other areas have also expected price cuts in the past two days

Jiang Lu, chief researcher of industrial products of CITIC Construction Investment Futures, also said that overall, the domestic supply risk premium of coking coal has been significantly reduced, but there is no obvious momentum on the demand side

According to Jiang Lu's understanding, before the Spring Festival, coking steel enterprises have sufficient stocks.

Cao Ying pointed out that the demand side of coking coal is obviously affected by the Winter Olympics, and the production of downstream steel mills and coking plants will remain at a low level

　　At the same time, the start-up of coking enterprises was also affected by the Winter Olympics.
Coking enterprises in the main production areas of Shanxi and Shandong implemented production restrictions ranging from 30-50%
.
"Coking enterprises with poor cost control have fallen into a comprehensive loss
.
" Cao Ying said that downstream steel mills have repeatedly raised the purchase price of coke, resulting in poor profits of coke enterprises.
The demand for warehouses is sluggish, the profit situation deteriorates, and the demand for coking coal is suppressed to a certain extent
.

　　Jiang Lu said that some steel mills started the second round of coke price reduction on the 7th
.
The continued compression of coking coal profits will force the price of coking coal to drop.
Enterprises are mostly bearish on coking coal after the holiday, and the auction of coking coal in the origin has passed the phenomenon
.

　　Optimistic market expectations show a "strong market"

　　The pressure on the coking coal spot does not affect the futures market's series of optimistic expectations for the later period
.

　　The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that it is necessary to carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of time, and solidly promote the implementation of 102 major engineering projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan"
.
Promote the construction of new infrastructure, and increase support for the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries to high-end, intelligent, and green
.

　　Jiang Lu pointed out that the strong expectation of "moderately advanced infrastructure development" has made the black sector perform strongly
.
In February, we should pay attention to whether the market's expectations for infrastructure construction can be realized into actual terminal demand
.
"We believe that the infrastructure construction forecast cannot be falsified in February.
On the one hand, the cold weather affects the progress of resumption of work.
On the other hand, the advance rise of raw materials will erode downstream profits, thus hindering the progress of the project
.
This means that the price of the black plate will still fluctuate strongly.
Run
.
" Jiang Lu said
.

　　“During the Winter Olympics, where and how long the molten iron production declines will determine the finished product inventory, as well as the strength and speed of the resumption of production by steel mills in the later period
.
In addition, the marginal changes in imported Mongolian coal and seaborne coal may also affect the fundamentals.
It is estimated that there may be an incremental potential of 6 million tons after the opening of the China-Mongolia port railway in July
.
" Jiang Lu said
.

　　As far as the near future is concerned, Cao Ying pointed out that the range of the futures price discount to the spot price has been very narrow, and the market's high valuation may have the risk of falling back
.
In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission has recently raised the regulation and supervision of coal prices, and it is necessary to be more vigilant of the risk of intensified fluctuations in coking coal futures prices from high levels
.

From: Xinhua Finance