Strong fundamental support Aluminum prices will remain strong

Near-term domestic demand performance is still strong, especially after the absolute aluminum price has fallen, procurement is obviously positive, coupled with the supply disruption caused by power problems, the fundamental support is strong
.
On the macro level, although the higher inflation data in the United States has caused some concern in the market, the probability of the Fed's policy shift in the second quarter is not high, and the easing situation is maintained
.
Therefore, the macro background maintains a strong superimposed fundamentals, and aluminum prices will still be strong
.

On the macro front, the center of ten-year inflation expectations in the United States stood at 2.
5, and the CPI rose to an eight-year high of 4.
2% in April, and the inflation problem was more prominent, and the market was worried about the hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve, the decline in risk appetite, and the bottom of the US dollar
.

On the supply side, as of early May, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 39.
71 million tons/year, and the effective construction capacity was 43.
5 million tons/year, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises nationwide was 91.
3%.

Higher profits are still attractive for the continued release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the later stage, but the marginal growth rate of supply gradually slows down
due to low elasticity.

In terms of demand, subject to high raw material costs, some companies have chosen to reduce production or even stop production for a period of time in order to reduce losses, and the current rise of terminal products is weak, and it takes time
for high prices to be transmitted.
The differentiation of downstream fields is also continuing, with automobile-related orders slightly declining due to the impact of chips, while household appliances, power tools and other civilian categories have performed well, and orders are relatively abundant
.
The inventory of raw materials for enterprises is relatively low
.

In terms of inventory, the data shows that the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 1.
061 million tons, the weekly storage reduction is 54,000 tons, and Wuxi, Nanhai and Gongyi have all performed smoothly to destock.

The excessive soaring aluminum price in the early stage has some room for adjustment, but under the continuation of the easing policy and inflation expectations have not been fully controlled, the downside is limited, pay attention to the 19,000 support
.