Strong supply-side support Short-term aluminum prices may continue the trend of high volatility

This week's Shanghai aluminum weekly cumulative decline of 0.
8%, short-term expected Shanghai aluminum or will continue the high shock trend, the main force above can pay attention to the 20500 pressure level, but considering the current high or will again face national policy pressure, it is expected that the pressure above 20000 is large, pay attention to the shock range of 1.
95-20,200.

From a fundamental point of view, the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply side disturbances are endless, the southwest and Inner Mongolia production restrictions continue to increase, the demand side is not worse than expected performance, and the short-term Henan transportation has not been completely dredged, helping the electrolytic aluminum social inventory to go to the warehouse smoothly, giving strong support to aluminum prices
.

In terms of stocks, SMM statistics counted domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks of 743,000 tons, down 15,000 tons
from the previous Thursday.
The arrival of goods in Wuxi and Gongyi increased slightly compared with the previous week, but the current Longhai section gives priority to ensuring passenger transportation, and the freight efficiency is still hindered
to a certain extent.

At present, the supply side is continuously disrupted, and the market will still pay more attention to the supply-side topic
in the second half of the year.
Since the beginning of the year, the shutdown capacity of electrolytic aluminum has approached 2 million tons, far exceeding the scale of
new and resumed production.
The short-term supply reduction is large, the inventory still has room to decline, and the supply and demand tend to balance in August after the outflow of storage resources, and the peak season still needs to sell the reserve and lift or import window to fill the enlarged gap between supply and demand
.
From a macro perspective, the overseas epidemic continues to disrupt the global economic recovery, and the spread of variant strains may cause major central banks to continue to maintain accommodative policies
.
At the same time, the Fed chairman recently said that he would remain accommodative and optimistic
about the economic recovery.
Overall, under the influence of power cuts in many places and the dual carbon policy this year, electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be severely limited, and the supply side will be strongly
supported.