Structural Contradictions Still Exist and Shanghai rubber fluctuates at a low level

Domestic production areas began to cut in late March, and it is still in the early stage of cutting, the gum yield of gum trees is low, and the proportion of dry content is also low; At the same time, the purchase price of raw materials remained low, which also had a certain inhibiting effect on the rubber tapping enthusiasm of rubber farmers, but there was no large-scale tree cutting
.

At present, the purchase price of private glue in Yunnan is 9.
0-9.
1 yuan / kg, and the purchase price of state-owned glue is 9.
7 yuan / kg; The number of rubber blocks is limited
.
The purchase price of glue of state-owned rubber factory in Hainan production area is 11.
9 yuan / kg, the purchase price of standard rubber (dry glue made of glue) is 11.
0 yuan / kg, the purchase price of miscellaneous rubber is 6.
7 yuan / kg, the output of new rubber of private rubber factory in Hainan production area is limited, and the domestic market is still dominated by pre-sale of cargo in early May
.

In terms of factories, due to the tight supply of glue, there is a widespread phenomenon of competing raw materials between processing plants, which affects production costs and profits, and the overall capacity utilization rate is low
.

According to the latest ANRPC report, in the first quarter of 2018, global natural rubber production (11550, 100.
00, 0.
87%) increased by 3.
3% year-on-year to 3.
152 million tons
.
Among them, Thailand increased by more than 10%, and Indonesia increased
slightly.
During the same period, global natural rubber consumption increased by 7.
6% to 3.
361 million tons
.
China decreased by 2% and Thailand increased by 110%.

India, Indonesia and Malaysia also saw growth
.
It can be seen that although the low price after cutting has a negative impact on the supply side, the overall phenological conditions this year are better than in previous years, so the overall output still shows a year-on-year
upward trend.

Due to the export restrictions of the Triple Alliance, as of March, member countries exported 2.
325 million tons of natural rubber, down more than 120,000 tons year-on-year, down 5%, and the expected target was 349,000 tons
.
Among them, the exports of Thailand, India and Malaysia rubber alliance decreased by 105,000 tons
.
It is understood that Thailand has the strongest control this year, making a greater contribution to restricting exports; However, it is only in the short term that the supply pressure will be deposited on its major rubber factories, and after the policy interference is over, it is expected that the three countries will concentrate on exports to release pressure
.
Corresponding to the domestic side, the import volume may increase sharply year-on-year
.
As of March, Thailand's standard rubber exports fell 34.
9% year-on-year, tobacco flake gum fell 12.
8%, and latex increased 24.
4%.

In addition, due to the low center of gravity of Shanghai rubber prices after the year, the proportion of domestic arbitrage liquidation increased, so the import volume of mixed rubber contracted
.
Thailand's mixed rubber exports in March almost halved year-on-year, down 46.
3% year-on-year and 46% month-on-month; In the first three months, the cumulative export volume increased by 7.
5%
year-on-year.

The general structure of industrial supply and demand imbalance has not changed for the time being, and the pressure of midstream inventory is prominent; At the same time, with the opening of production areas and the end of the three-country export restriction policy, upstream supply pressure will accelerate to China and other consumer countries
.
In the downstream, terminal demand is weak, tire factory inventory levels have begun to rise, and raw materials are not willing to actively replenish stocks
.
In addition, the repair of the futures spot spread has not yet been completed, and if the price rebounds unilaterally again, it will also attract arbitrage to re-enter, so the rubber price lacks the motivation
to continue to rise.
Backed by 12000-12500 to sell short
.