Summary of 2004 Summer Cereals, Oils and feeds Market Forum

Introduction: 1 National grain supply and demand situation and price trend (source: Zhu Changguo, deputy director of the State Grain Administration): A this year's grain production situation is better than expected, with obvious macro-control effect Summer grain production increased, with a total output of 202.1 billion jin, or 4.8%, mainly wheat production This year's output is 87 million tons The early rice production has a good harvest and the autumn grain growth is generally good The state has implemented the relevant policies well: land protection system, restrictions on development zones; reduction of agricultural taxes; high-quality seed subsidies; deregulation of grain prices; import and export policies B the current year's production is insufficient and there is a gap, and the state has inventory adjustment balance In that year, the domestic grain consumption was 985 billion jin, and the gap was 75 billion jin Among them, the consumption of wheat is 210 billion jin, and the gap is 26 billion jin, which can be made up by digging up stocks and importing; the use of rice stocks is also needed; the supply and marketing of corn is basically balanced The state has sufficient quantity to adjust and balance the supply, but there are contradictions in the balance C price trend in the second half of this year: prices will be stable in the future with little fluctuation The price change is basically seasonal The wheat price production area looks at Henan, and the sales area looks at Guangdong The price of wheat will rise steadily in the future, and the upper limit is the price of imported wheat 2 The current situation of the management of the import market of bulk agricultural products (source: Bi Jingquan, director of the economic and Trade Circulation Department of the national development and Reform Commission): A grain trade is limited to the adjustment of domestic supply and demand Grain is still based on self-sufficiency, and grain cannot be imported The management of grain import and export adopts the international general methods: quota system, market access opportunities B grain import and export situation this year: increase in import and decrease in export In the second half of the year, grain import and export will continue to increase in the first half of the year C soybean import and export situation: in the first half of the year, about 9 million tons of soybeans were imported, and soybean oil imports increased by 1.7 times Soybean crushing industry has become a high-risk industry with excess capacity, and raw materials are highly dependent on imports In the future, soybean import should be guided reasonably, the healthy development of soybean market should be promoted, the market liquidity should be enhanced to disperse risks, the export of soybean meal should be encouraged to strengthen the inspection of imported soybean oil, and the import of soybean oil should be restrained to make room for domestic enterprises 3 Introduction to China's animal and plant import and export quarantine (source: Lu Houlin, director of animal and plant Department of AQSIQ) main content: Recently Brazil's soybean exports to China contain red seed coating agent China banned 23 companies from exporting Brazilian soybeans to China After negotiations between the two countries, China agreed to resume the import of Brazilian soybeans, but still maintained zero tolerance on the issue of seed coating agents Brazil's standard of 1 seed coating soybean per kilogram is not acceptable Brazil has promised that there will be no mixing of seed coating agent and soybean since June 11 At present, the seed coating agent soybeans found in import need to be manually sorted at the expense of the exporter 4 Analysis of the current situation of wheat supply and demand in China (source: Shang Qiangmin, director of the national grain and Oil Information Center): the possible reason for the price rise is the shortage of supply After nearly four years of continuous production reduction, China's winter sown and summer harvested wheat output increased for the first time in 2004, but the next year's wheat supply will continue to be 10 million tons lower than the demand This year's winter wheat output reached about 83.5 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons over last year's 81 million tons Winter wheat accounts for 90% of the total harvest of summer grain Forecast of price trend in the second half of the year: wheat output is higher than the forecast, commodity wheat supply capacity is strong in the second half of the year, after the gradual increase of supply weakens, wheat inventory further reduces, and the price will rise under the pull of demand With the arrival of imported wheat in Hong Kong, the space for domestic wheat price to rise will be limited It is estimated that the ex warehouse price of wheat will reach 0.78 yuan / Jin in the year There is a possibility of further increase in wheat prices in 2005 The gap between supply and demand will expand, the storage cost will increase, and the price of wheat will be set at 0.84-0.85 yuan / Jin 5 The adjustment of China's grain production policy and its future prospects (source: Ke Bingsheng, rural economic research center, Ministry of Agriculture) main content: food security is short-term, worry free and long-term In the short term, the release of grain inventory can meet the demand through foreign trade adjustment In the long run, rigid demand growth is irreversible and supply constraints are prominent The fundamental problem to solve the problem of long-term food security lies in production rather than circulation Food policy objectives: food security; quality of adaptation; market stability; efficiency of financial expenditure General trend in the future: tight supply in the long term, not excluding short-term fluctuations (excess) Grain was transferred from net export to net import Wheat imports will increase, rice exports will reduce the overall import volume will not be very high.