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Overnight, the main Shanghai aluminum 2108 closed at 19000, down 300, and LME aluminum closed at 2557, up 48.
5
.
The fundamentals have entered the off-season, with a further slowdown trend, while the momentum of internal and external economic recovery has declined, and the market has entered a stage of high volatility
.
On the supply side, the resumption of production in Yunnan is still slow, while the commissioning of major new projects in Guizhou, Yunnan and Guangxi has been delayed
.
The 50,000-ton aluminum ingot of the National Reserve Bank is a foregone conclusion at the end of the month, and the sentiment of the futures market is not expected to be affected too much, but the liquidity of the spot market may be affected, and the premium may be hit
.
As the Shanghai-aluminum ratio continues to decline recently, imports will continue to weaken
.
On the demand side, according to SMM, major downstream sectors such as profiles and strip foil have gradually entered the off-season
.
The operating rate of leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises in this period decreased significantly by 1.
8 percentage points month-on-week to 73.
1%.
This week, China's 6063 aluminum rod processing fee is running at a low level, and the low value has repeatedly moved
down.
In terms of inventory, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social stock was 876,000 tons, with a weekly small accumulation of 2,000 tons, Wuxi and Shanghai continued to destock, and the South China Sea region increased compared with the previous week
due to the increase in arrivals and the weakening of the warehouse.
The high growth rate in the South China Sea has unexpectedly increased today's aluminum ingot inventory, and the current inventory inflection point still needs to be observed, focusing on whether the accumulation is sustainable
.
On the macro front, the decision of the June Fed interest rate meeting has been decided, hawkish remarks have gradually stopped, and a new round of trillion-dollar plans has kicked off, which has a significant
stimulating effect on market bulls' momentum.
In the process of seasonal weakening of demand, the short-term recovery of supply such as storage dumping and resumption of production increases supply pressure (the pressure is not large), resulting in the trend of domestic electrolytic aluminum spot inventory destocking, accumulating or leading the next electrolytic aluminum fundamental trend
.
However, the overall tight balance between supply and demand has limited
room for decline.
