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From the current point of view, the fundamentals of the tianjiao market are still weak
.
On the supply side, Yunnan has been cut, and the main producing countries in Southeast Asia have been cutting from north to south, gradually entering the growth period
of new rubber supply.
The collapse of rubber prices in the early stage may affect the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to tap rubber to a certain extent, and it is expected that the global supply of natural rubber will increase
slightly.
In terms of demand, from April China's heavy truck sales increased by 51.
52% year-on-year and excavator sales increased by 101.
1% year-on-year, other construction machinery maintained a growth of 37% to 320% to varying degrees, that is, the physical demand for rubber downstream grew steadily, while speculative demand shrank
sharply due to financial regulation and deleveraging, rising interest rates.
In terms of inventory, due to the sharp increase in China's rubber imports since the beginning of this year, the total rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has climbed to 267,800 tons, the natural rubber inventory has also climbed to 206,800 tons, and the inventory of the last period of the rubber warehouse has also accelerated to 318,500 tons, which has reached a record high
.
From a macro point of view, the main contradiction affecting rubber prices this year is whether the tightening expectations of domestic and foreign monetary policy have changed
.
Before the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, domestic financial deleveraging and domestic real estate tightening policies, it is difficult for Shanghai rubber and even the commodity market to have a trend
upward trend.
The future market needs to pay attention to the following factors: first, the follow-up development of Trump's "leakgate" incident, and whether macro expectations have changed; Second, the production of tianjiao in the main producing areas at home and abroad, and whether there is extreme weather; Third, whether the main producing countries in Southeast Asia have once again introduced policies to affect the supply and demand pattern of the rubber market, such as restricting exports
.
