Supply and demand or the peak of the year property market "golden nine silver ten" can be period.

China Paint Network News:
this year
, real estate policy adjustment is intensive. Following the "330 New Deal", the central bank "five interest rate cuts four times" and foreign buyers, on August 31, the three ministries jointly issued a notice to lower the threshold of provident fund loans, from September this year, provident fund loans second home down payment fell to 20%. Industry insiders said that this represents the fourth round of real estate stimulus policy since 2014 began to upgrade, stable financial situation must stabilize the property market, industry policy and monetary "double easing" situation is expected to continue, the corresponding good will still be frequent, do not rule out further leverage, tax and other support policies. Looking to the future, a series of positive policies will add momentum to the housing market recovery, the market may usher in the year's peak supply and demand, housing prices will show a "steady rise" trend. Home purchase enthusiasm has been boosted since September 2014 for the first time to reduce the proportion of residents to buy a down payment, on August 31 this year, the Ministry of Housing and Construction, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank again jointly issued a notice, from September 1, for households with 1 home and has cleared the corresponding purchase loans, in order to improve living conditions to re-apply for housing provident fund entrusted loans to purchase housing, the minimum down payment ratio from 30% to 20%. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen may, on the basis of the national unified policy and in the light of local reality, independently decide to apply for housing provident fund entrusted loans to purchase a second housing minimum down payment ratio. "In the case of previous interest rate cuts, provident fund loan interest rates have been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, which makes the interest rate of provident fund loans itself has been relatively low, but this policy for second homes provident fund loan down payment ratio has also been reduced, out of the market expectations, does reflect the policy level of greater stimulus." Yan Yuejin, director of research at the Think Tank Center of the Easy House Research Institute, said the policy has positive implications for the real estate market, first, this year is a typical policy easing year, all kinds of loose policy concentration, may make the real estate market in September facing a very good time to buy a house. Especially for second-home buyers, the best buying is actually coming at this time. Second, in September, the traditional "golden nine silver ten" stage, the introduction of this policy will make home buyers continue to boost confidence, especially some groups with improved demand for housing, but also at this time will actively enter the market. However, he pointed out that in the actual implementation process, the third-tier and below cities will face better policy support, and second-tier cities may choose to improve the demand for housing to adjust the provident fund loan policy. For first-tier cities, including Beijing, the possibility of adjustment is not great, will increase the pressure on house prices. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the real impact of the further reduction of the provident fund down payment is limited, because the provident fund and commercial loans are not the same, there are ceilings everywhere, such as the Beijing ceiling of only 1.2 million, in this case the down payment of 20% is unlikely to be achieved, but the psychological impact is greater, for home buyers, the enthusiasm of the golden nine silver ten buyers will continue to improve, the first and second-tier cities in September-October market may be a wave of growth. Haitong Securities believes that the current second-home concessions are basically close to 2008, considering the third-tier and below the city's total housing prices are low, provident fund policy adjustment to support the industry to inventory has real significance, regardless of new construction, investment in the third-tier cities accounted for 50%-60%, Therefore, the recovery of third-tier cities directly determines real estate investment, new construction of late recovery efforts, considering the third-tier city provident fund loans accounted for the proportion of housing loans significantly higher than the first- and second-tier cities, the New Deal to ensure the demand market for third-tier cities, reduce the inventory of new housing in third-tier cities and stabilize the late real estate investment is of great significance. In addition, the Ministry of Housing and Construction, Ministry of Commerce and other six ministries jointly issued a new policy, for foreign-invested real estate enterprises and foreign institutions, individuals to buy part of the policy to make loose adjustments, allowing overseas individuals to buy commercial housing in line with the actual needs. Industry insiders pointed out that the relaxation of foreign policy for the north to Guangzhou and Shenzhen and other first-tier cities of high-end projects may play a role in releasing purchasing power, the continuous introduction of positive policies, indicating the government to promote the real estate market rebound of the urgent psychology, if the next real estate market recovery process is not as expected, do not rule out the government to continue to increase the size of the real estate market stimulus policy. The lowest cost of buying a home has not only continued to ease housing policy, but also since the beginning of the year, monetary liquidity has continued to release. On August 25th the central bank decided to cut the benchmark interest rate for renminbi loans and deposits of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, while lowering the reserve requirement ratio for renminbi deposits of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points. So far, this round has been five interest rate cuts four times, the most direct stimulus to the property market is home buyers "monthly supply decline, interest directly reduced", credit costs have been reduced to a minimum. According to the data, to lend 1 million, 20 years, for example, the interest rate cut after the monthly supply reduction of 140 yuan. If the current round of interest rate cuts starts at the end of November 2014, buyers of five rate cuts will reduce their interest rate by as much as $193,000 over 20 years based on the benchmark interest rate. "Further liquidity releases will help to drive a sustained and steady recovery in the housing market in the second half of the year," he said. Zhang Dawei believes that in the context of continued monetary easing, banks will increase the amount of loans, for home buyers, the first home interest rate discount will be significantly increased. At present, the first-home loan discount in the first-tier cities in the mainstream at about 90%, the future there is the possibility of 8.5 percent or 8 percent. For home buyers, this direct credit stimulus impact is very large, the interest rate cut channel has continued to open, the enthusiasm to buy continues to improve. Li Qiaoling of the Chain Home Network Research Institute believes that in the real economy downward pressure increased, the stock market fell, the central bank continued to cut interest rates, cut permits coupled with the three ministries jointly reduce the down payment ratio of provident fund loans, which further confirmed the previous speculation about stimulating real estate demand to boost the economy, and this similar means are still possible in the future. The real estate industry is expected to have a more relaxed policy environment this year and even next. After several interest rate cuts by the central bank, interest rates have fallen to record lows, demand for first-home buyers has been effectively released, and first-tier cities and some second-tier cities have basically doubled their turnover this year compared with last year. If coupled with the provident fund two sets of 20% down payment ratio policy landed, low housing prices in the third and fourth-tier cities demand is expected to be driven by a part. This year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" and the end of the year in the real estate market, is expected to maintain a high volume of transactions. The rebound of new momentum has emerged to benefit from a series of positive policies, the property market continues to show a warming trend. According to the latest August 2015 "100 City Price Index" report released by the China Index Research Institute, the average price of housing in 100 cities nationwide (newly built) in August was 10,787 yuan per square meter, up 0.95 percent month-on-month, an increase of 0.41 percentage points over the previous month. Taken together, the average price of residential housing in 100 cities rose for the first time in 16 months year-on-year. The average price of newly built homes in beijing, Shanghai and other top 10 cities was RMB1,962 per square meter, up 1.95 percent month-on-month, up 0.80 percentage points from the previous month, and up 3.83 percent year-on-year, up 2.53 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Shanghai house prices rose the most month-on-month, the average price rose 3.77 percent, Shenzhen rose 26.38 percent year-on-year still the first. From the Beijing market, according to the Chain Home Network Research Institute statistics, in August, the number of new commercial housing (including affordable housing, self-housing) net sign-off volume of 9,291 units, down 30.3% from July. Excluding affordable housing, pure commercial residential transactions were 6001 units, down 19.3 percent from the previous month and up 44.1 percent from the same period in 2014. In August, the average transaction price of pure commercial housing (excluding affordable housing and self-housing) in Beijing was RMB29,687/m2, up 7.6% month-on-month. In August, the number of second-hand residential net signings in Beijing was 19,088, down 11.1% month-on-month and up 127.1% year-on-year. The average transaction price was RMB35,760/m2, up 1.4% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year. From January to August, the total volume of second-hand housing transactions was 125,370 units, up 106.8 percent from the same period last year. The number of second-hand homes in Beijing so far this year is close to the 127,000 units bought in the same period last year (2010). In terms of supply, a total of 18 housing projects in Beijing received pre-sale permits in August, with a total supply of 5,429 units, down 25.4% from the whole of July. Excluding self-housing, the supply of purely commercial housing units was 5,222, up 102.8 per cent from the previous month and down 18.4 per cent from last year. The supply of pure commercial housing units in January-August 2015 was 43,572 units, down 41.3% from the same period last year. According to Ahao statistics, in September Beijing will have 34 projects into the market, the number of entering the market will hit this year's monthly high, of which, pure new disk has 20.Li Qiaoling of the
Chain Home Network Research Institute believes that with the arrival of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", as well as the recent interest rate cut and the impact of the New Deal on market sentiment, the market may usher in the peak of supply and demand during the year, housing prices will also show a "steady rise" trend. Zhu Guang, a researcher at the Easy House Research Institute, believes that with the recent introduction of a series of policies, the housing market recovery will add new impetus, especially the supply and demand structure is relatively tight first-tier and some second-tier cities, the real estate market is expected to continue to heat up during the year, house price growth will accelerate; Overall, the property market around the stimulus of good policies, the trend of differentiation will become more and more obvious. A large number of policy backhands to choose the first securities believe that under the overlap of multiple policies, the industry is expected to usher in a short increase in turnover in the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", but considering the large differences at all levels of the market and to avoid some regional transactions overheating led to excessive price increases and policy shifts and other issues, the future direction of industry regulation is expected to continue the niche, localized operation ideas, market transformation and differentiation is still the theme of the industry return and adjustment phase. Yan Yuejin believes that the real estate industry should now become the engine of China's economic recovery, whether it is the rise in market turnover or the completion of the rebound in prices, are conducive to the boost of market confidence, as well as driving the rapid development of related industries. So this time the central government for the property market policy to continue to increase the code, the intention is obvious, that is, hope that september and the fourth quarter of the real estate market can play a role in boosting market confidence, inventory assets, to drive economic recovery. Haitong Securities also pointed out that the government has been from the highest level to reflect the determination to stabilize economic growth and promote the healthy development of the real estate market, if the real estate market can not be effectively restored, in addition to interest rate cuts, rate cuts and other traditional macro-monetary tools, the government still has a large number of policy options, including continued differentiation of credit, reduced capital requirements, administrative intervention, fiscal and taxation policies, land and household registration policies, network management and housing security system.