Supply and demand side support is limited, copper prices have insufficient upward momentum

Shanghai copper opened high and dipped in overnight trading on Wednesday, extending its weak state during the day, closing down 0.
28%.

The lack of guidance in the peripheral market, poor domestic economic data, limited supply and demand support, and Shanghai copper weakened
again.

There were few important economic data from Europe and the United States overnight, the dollar index fluctuated in a narrow range, and the market awaited Powell's speech and the performance of the US non-farm payrolls data on Friday
.
China's official manufacturing PMI for November, released in the morning, was 48%, down 1.
2 percentage points from the previous month and continuing to be below the critical point, suggesting that downward pressure on domestic manufacturing has intensified
.
In the short term, although the economic performance is weak, there is still strong policy support
.

Recently, the inventory of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts has continued to decline, but as of last Friday, the level of copper inventory in the previous period was still significantly higher
than that of the previous period.
At present, copper ore processing fees are still high, and smelter profits are better, but refined copper production is still limited by multiple factors, and downstream demand has weakened
.
According to Mysteel's survey, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 192,400 tons, a decrease of 016,000 tons from the previous month; at present, copper smelting enterprises in the Fujian market in South China have begun to overhaul, and the output has decreased; in addition, the epidemic interference in the southwest and northwest regions is also not small, and the output of local copper smelting enterprises has been slightly affected
.
As the domestic social treasury began to rise, the risk of superimposed squeezes declined, and the bearish sentiment in the downstream market rebounded
.
However, the overall inventory level is still relatively low, coupled with the probability of the Fed's interest rate hike will gradually slow down, so the current copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern
under the influence of multiple factors.

In terms of the market, Shanghai Metal Network 1# electrolytic copper quotation 65220-65360 yuan / ton, the average price of 65290 yuan / ton, down 235 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper 2212 contract up 340-370 yuan / ton
.
The spot market transaction is general, and the premium is down 30 yuan / ton
from the previous day.
Copper prices fluctuated and downstream consumption was weaker, and last week's flat water and poor flat water imports arrived one after another, market circulation increased, and the premium was under pressure and downward
.
During the active period, flat water copper rose about 340 yuan, good copper rose about 350 yuan, the transaction volume was relatively large, and domestic good copper and wet copper were rare
.

Recently, the high level of copper prices has fallen, the downstream goods have improved, domestic inventories have begun to decline, and the spot premium has stabilized but is not high; LME injection inventories have rebounded slightly, spot premiums are low, and copper prices are expected to have insufficient
upward momentum.