Supply concerns will still support oil prices The market expects oil prices to hold steady above $100 this year

The latest Reuters survey data released on Thursday (June 30) showed that oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel this year, mainly because Europe and other regions are difficult to get rid of dependence on Russian crude supplies, although downside risks to the global economy may slow the pace
of oil price climbing.

A new Reuters poll of 34 economists and analysts showed that they widely expect Brent crude to average $106.
82 per barrel in 2022, the highest forecast level so far this year, compared with the consensus expectation of $101.
89 per barrel in May, and the US WTI crude price in 2022 is widely expected to be $102.
82 per barrel, compared with the May expectation of $97.
82
.

Brent crude has averaged about $105 a barrel so far this year, but is currently trading at a higher level
of around $111 a barrel due to supply concerns.

Robert Yawger, head of Mizuho's energy futures division in New York, said: "As long as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to hinder the world's much-needed crude oil supply, crude oil prices will continue to rise
.
"

The U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last week that global crude oil capacity in May 2022 was less than half of
the average monthly level in 2021, as Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
It is understood that Russian crude oil exports account for about 7%
of global supply.

Analysts widely expect concerns about tight supply to overshadow concerns about demand
.
They expect crude oil demand to grow by about 2.
3 million to 5 million b/d this year and 2-2.
4 million b/d
in 2023.

DBS Bank analyst Suvro Sarkar said: "Fears of disruption on the demand side amid expectations of stagflation and a slowdown in the global economy have dampened oil price bullish sentiment in the near term, but demand may pick up
again in the third quarter as Russian crude oil completely fails to flow into the market, resulting in short supply.
"

"In fact, many OPEC members, especially some in Africa, are having great difficulty even meeting current production quotas due to insufficient investment, and OPEC's overall spare capacity remains insufficient
," Sarkar added.

For now, markets are focused on OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including Russia, but some sources say major policy changes seem unlikely
.
"OPEC and the United States will work to avoid a repeat of the negative pricing disaster of two years ago
.
" They will limit production
.
Robert Yawger emphasized
.