In the early stage, the international crude oil price plummeted, which suppressed the liquefied gas market.
At present, investors' wait-and-see sentiment has increased, the upward momentum of liquefied gas is insufficient, and the recovery of the superimposed demand side has not improved.
The short-term price of liquefied gas may maintain a weak oscillation.
In the medium and long term, the market is more optimistic about demand expectations in mid-to-late September and October.
The picture shows the domestic civil gas market price (unit: yuan/ton)
In September, the price of CP rose less than expected.
July, the price of liquefied petroleum gas steadily rose and rose to the highest level since April; although the price fell slightly in early August, it quickly returned to the high level.
Entering September, the traditional "golden nine silver ten" season has arrived, but the price of liquefied gas across the country has experienced a collective decline.
At present, the average price of domestic gas is 3019 yuan/ton, of which the mainstream price in South China is 2880-2970 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in East China is 2900-3050 yuan/ton.
The latest CP price of Saudi Aramco rose slightly in September.
Propane was US$365/ton, the same as last month; butane was US$355/ton, an increase of US$10/ton from last month, but the growth rate was less than expected.
Liquefied petroleum gas traders are generally enthusiastic about entering the market.
In addition, the international crude oil fell sharply in the early period, causing the entire energy and chemical sector to suffer heavy losses.
The domestic liquefied gas market will hardly be boosted in the short term.
Terminal consumption has not improved.
July to August, the domestic market demand for liquefied gas has not changed much from the previous period, and its performance is average.
Although in the process of price increases, some traders carry out replenishment and hoarding operations, but the inventory is only transferred from the upstream to the social inventory, and the actual terminal consumption is limited.
At present, terminal demand still shows no signs of improvement.
Recently, the spot market in many places has fallen, and the downstream is still dominated by periodic replenishment, and it is more cautious to enter the market.
In terms of supply, the total domestic liquefied gas commodity inventory is at a relatively high level.
The current value is 431,600 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous month, compared with 340,000 to 350,000 tons in early April, an increase of about 25%.
Among them, the increase in inventory in South China is more obvious.
Except for the Northeast region, inventories in other regions all rose slightly.
On the one hand, because the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high; on the other hand, the short-term domestic refinery has no maintenance and shutdown plans, and the refinery starts smoothly.
The basis of liquefied gas has gradually narrowed.
Recently, the main 2011 contract of liquefied gas futures has been under pressure.
In terms of basis, the main contract basis at the initial stage of listing was 193.
67 yuan/ton, and then the basis continued to return.
Since the end of April, there has been an obvious spot discount, with the minimum value reaching -1008.
As of September 16, the main contract basis was -489 yuan/ton.
Although it has narrowed compared with the previous period, it is still a high premium.
As the 2011 contract approaches the delivery month, the basis will continue to narrow.
In short, in the short term, international oil prices have no favorable guidance for the domestic liquefied gas market.
From the point of view of the spot market of liquefied petroleum gas, ships from South China have been concentrated recently, and the inventory of liquefied petroleum gas has rebounded to varying degrees in various places, and the upward momentum of liquefied gas prices is insufficient.
Before terminal demand does not improve significantly, downstream traders mostly hold a wait-and-see mood, and the futures price fluctuates within a large probability range in the short term.
Winter is the traditional peak season for liquefied gas consumption, and the possibility of a rebound in the price of liquefied gas is not ruled out in the later period.
[Copyright Statement] Adhering to the open and inclusive spirit of the Internet, ChemNet welcomes all media and institutions to reprint and quote our original content, but we must strictly indicate the source ChemNet; at the same time, we advocate respect and protection of intellectual property rights, such as If you find that there are copyright problems in the articles on this site, please send an email to info@netsun.
com for copyright questions, authorization certificates, copyright certificates, contact information, etc.
, and we will verify and deal with them as soon as possible.
Transfer from: Chemical Network
[Copyright and Disclaimer] All copyrighted works belonging to this website must be authorized when reprinting and indicate the source "China Industrial Economic Information Network".
Offenders of this website will reserve the right to pursue relevant legal responsibilities.
Any reprint of articles and corporate publicity information only represents the author's personal views, and does not represent the views and positions of this website.
For copyright matters, please contact: 010-65363056.