The 2023 Energy Economy Research Report predicts that international crude oil prices will fall back

"In 2022, the international crude oil market fluctuated sharply, with oil prices rising sharply in the first half of the year and then fluctuating at a high level, and falling under pressure in the second half of the year
.
It is expected that the international oil price will fall back in 2023, and the average price of Brent and New York crude oil will be 82~92 US dollars / barrel and 77~87 US dollars / barrel
respectively.
This is the message
released at the launch of the 2023 Energy Economy Forecast and Outlook Research Report held in Beijing on January 8.

It is understood that in the first half of 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict triggered sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States, pushing oil prices to an annual peak of $127.
98 / barrel, and sanctions continued to increase to maintain oil prices above
$100 / barrel.
In the second half of the year, rising energy and food prices aggravated inflation in major economies such as the European Union and the United States, and weak market demand, and oil prices fell all the way back to about
$80 per barrel.
In 2022, the average annual price of Brent crude oil futures is 99.
04 US dollars / barrel, and the average annual price of New York crude oil futures is 94.
3 US dollars / barrel, up 39.
61% and 38.
53%
respectively compared with 2021.

Overall, the average price difference between Brent and New York crude oil in 2022 is the largest since
2016.
The main reason is that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict affected the supply of Brent crude oil, and the release of the strategic petroleum reserve by the United States suppressed the price of crude oil in New York
.

Looking forward to 2023, the economies of Europe and the United States are deeply worried about recession, emerging market countries and developing countries will maintain their growth momentum, the divergence of world economic recovery will intensify, and the growth rate of crude oil demand will further slow down, driving the crude oil price center down
.

On the supply side, OPEC+ maintained the production reduction agreement, the US crude oil production capacity is limited, Russian oil exports are constrained, the supply side is contracting, and low inventories have also reduced the elasticity of crude oil supply
.
It is expected that the supply and demand of the international crude oil market will be tight in 2023, and the bottom support
will be basically formed in the face of oil prices.

However, in 2023, the uncertainty of non-fundamental factors will increase, and market risks will increase
.
The Fed is more likely to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, net longs in crude oil futures may bottom out, gold investment willingness is stronger than crude oil, big countries game or change the world crude oil trade pattern
.