The acrylonitrile industry is moving forward

Acrylonitrile, which was once a star product, had a bad start this year, and its price fell off a cliff

Overcapacity emerges

Entering 2022, the acrylonitrile market has encountered Waterloo, prices have fallen sharply, and profit margins have narrowed, which is in sharp contrast with 2021.

Only since the second half of 2021, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 260,000 tons/year, Keluer Phase II 130,000 tons/year, Lihuayi 260,000 tons/year, and Sierbang Phase III 260,000 tons/year acrylonitrile new The units have been put into operation one after another, and the new production capacity has reached 910,000 tons/year.

The expansion of acrylonitrile capacity did not stop there

The substantial increase in production capacity has led to a rise in production

Difficulty following up on demand

The downstream consumption of acrylonitrile in China is concentrated in the three major fields of ABS, acrylic fiber and acrylamide, which account for more than 80% of the total consumption of acrylonitrile

According to statistics, from 2019 to 2021, the annual growth rate of acrylonitrile consumption in China is more than 5%, mainly due to the increase in the operating rate of ABS enterprises, and the demand for acrylamide and other fields also maintains a growth trend

　　The acrylic fiber industry is restricted by the extrusion of substitutes, cost, and its own technology development, and its consumption has shrunk, and its proportion of acrylonitrile consumption has dropped from 33% in 2017 to 18% in 2021

　　Acrylamide is mainly used as polyacrylamide, and its uses are concentrated in oil field exploitation, water treatment and papermaking industries.

　　In the later period, the ABS industry will maintain its growth momentum in the next 2 to 3 years, and more than 4 million tons of new production capacity is planned to be put into operation, but the short-term effect on acrylonitrile lifting is not obvious; the acrylic fiber industry market has been shrinking; acrylamide Although the industry maintains growth, it is difficult to shake the raw material market, and other downstream industries of acrylonitrile are also difficult to achieve breakthrough growth.

　　Exports increase, reduce domestic pressure

　　But the acrylonitrile market is not without its bright spots.

　　This is inseparable from the centralized release of new domestic production capacity and the transition from a tight balance to a surplus state in the industry

　　While the export volume has increased, the number of exporting countries is also on the rise

　　According to the forecast of professional institutions, in the next five years, the growth rate of China's acrylonitrile production capacity will be greater than the growth rate of downstream demand, the import volume will further decline, and the export volume will continue to increase.