The aggregate MDI market continues to rise

Since September, the aggregate MDI market has continued its upward trend in August.
Wanhua’s barreled and ticketed outbound offer reference price is 17,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 30.
4%
.
"At present, the growth of the aggregate MDI market is slowing down, and there may be a short-term correction.
However, driven by favorable supply, there is still room for growth in the long-term
, and the'Silver Ten' is expected .
" Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Chemical Industry Research Institute, analyzed
.
Significant supply shrinkage The aggregate MDI market trended strongly in August, especially the straight upward market appeared again at the end of August, which rose by 1,500 yuan within a week, the largest weekly increase of the year
.
Entering September, the market continues to maintain a good momentum.
Up to now, the reference price of the Shanghai East China region for barrels with tickets out of the warehouse is 16,500 to 16,800 yuan, an increase of 800 yuan from the previous month
.
"In the later stage, there are more MDI maintenance devices at home and abroad, and the supply reduction will further enhance the confidence of the market to do more
.
" Meng Xianxing said
.
It is understood that the Shanghai Huntsman MDI device will undergo an annual maintenance of about 20 days in October; the Shanghai Lianheng 250,000 tons/year device is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in late October, which is expected to last for 10 days; the South Korean BASF device is scheduled to be completed in October.
Maintenance will start on the 31st and will last for 20 days; Tosoh’s 200,000-ton/year plant will be shut down for maintenance on September 10 and will last for 30-40 days
.
In addition, the German Covestro device has stopped due to failure, the BC device is still in the overhaul period, and Kumho plans to start a one-month overhaul from October 22
.
In the later stage, a significant reduction in load will benefit the aggregate MDI market and support it to continue to maintain a bright market in the following traditional peak seasons
.
Raw material support still exists.
In September, the focus of the raw material aniline market is upward, bringing cost support to polymer MDI
.
From the perspective of aniline raw material pure benzene, the listed price of Sinopec East China's pure benzene maintained 3450 yuan
.
The domestic pure benzene market is operating weakly, and the cost is insufficient.
Most aniline manufacturers are still hovering at the profit and loss line, and the overall installation load is not high.

.
However, the inventory of aniline manufacturers in East China is low, the pressure on shipments is not great, and the export sales are limited, and the market price has been pushed up
.
According to Zhang Yuanjiang, deputy general manager of Shandong Jinling Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
, from the perspective of plant operation, a 130,000-ton/year aniline plant in Shanxi Tianji is operating at full load; Dongying Huatai’s plant has maintained a load of 50 to 60%; Shandong Jinling 2 sets The 100,000-ton/year plant is operating normally; the load of Jiangsu Yangnong plant is maintained at about 60%; the Cornell plant has not fully restarted yet; the Lanzhou petrochemical plant is shut down
.
The downstream of aniline is still mainly based on rigid demand purchases, but the enquiry activity has increased
.
Overall, there is little pressure on the supply of aniline
.
From the upstream point of view, affected by OPEC’s proposal to extend the compensation period for production cuts and the significant decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, international oil prices rose sharply last week, with light crude oil futures rising 10.
13% weekly, and Brent crude oil futures rising 8.
34% weekly
.
Driven by this, the pure benzene market has improved slightly, mainly maintaining stability
.
On the whole, the raw material pure benzene support still exists, and the downstream procurement progress will be followed up.
It is expected that the aniline market will rise steadily, which will support polymer MDI on the cost side
.
Slow demand recovery From the perspective of the downstream polyether demand of polymerized MDI, the monthly output growth rate of the main downstream industries of soft furniture, automobiles, and refrigerators has been significantly positive since May, and the output of automobiles and refrigerators has increased significantly
.
According to Meng Xianxing, from the latest data, although the downstream cumulative output growth rate is still negative, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises continued to accelerate in July, and the cumulative decline in industrial profits from January to July further narrowed.
Economic performance continues to improve
.
Among them, the profit growth of the equipment manufacturing industry is accelerating, and the driving effect of key industries such as automobiles and electronics is particularly prominent
.
Throughout the domestic polyether market, due to the positive impact of some downstream operating rates, the spot on the polyether market is tight, and the factory orders are mainly delivered
.
In the short term, the spot market is still tight, some downstream orders just need to be maintained, and the market is running strongly
.
In the rigid foam polyether market, the supply of raw material propylene oxide is tight, and the price continues to rise
.
The downstream rigid demand is the main focus, and with the rising cost support, the factory mainly arranges and delivers orders
.
Looking at the market outlook, the price of raw material propylene oxide will continue to operate strongly, and domestic rigid foam polyether manufacturers are forced to follow cost pressures or range increases, which will continue to play a role in the polymeric MDI market
.