The bottom of the TDI market is still on the way

Since the beginning of October, the TDI market ended its three-month uptrend and began to fluctuate and fall, from around 18,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) all the way below the 15,000 yuan mark
.
On November 13, the TDI market reference price was 14,100 yuan (ton price, the same below), a decrease of 3,733.
33 yuan from the beginning of October, a decrease of 20.
93%
.
Regarding the market outlook, industry insiders believe that the demand for market correction has not been fully fulfilled, profitable low-price shipments have been dragged, and the market supply and demand are both weak.
It is expected that TDI prices will still have a small room for decline
.
Callback demands accumulate.
"In the third quarter, the domestic TDI market soared to 18,000 yuan under the support of export dividends and the downstream entering the peak season
.
As prices continued to rise, resistance breeds downstream, superimposed on the release of early profits, and the TDI market as a whole began.
Overcast
.
" Jin Lianchuang chemical analyst Yan Wei introduced
.
With the end of the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" market, the downstream demand for TDI has gradually weakened.
In addition, the price of TDI in the previous period has been pulled to a high level.
The downstream factories mostly consume inventory, and there is a shortage of real orders
.
Especially in mid-to-late October, the German BASF and European Covestro TDI installations that had encountered force majeure parking in the early stage restarted, but the downstream demand has always been difficult to increase
.
At the same time, early-stage profitable disks began to be shipped at low prices, dragging the main popular information disk, pessimism in the industry permeated, and the market decline accelerated
.
Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Wu Yanni also believes that after the TDI market rose to a high level in August and September, the continued upward momentum has weakened, and the demand for callbacks has accumulated
.
On the one hand, it is reflected in the shift from controlled shipments to active shipments by manufacturers after the National Day, and some manufacturers’ quotations have begun to decline, and the listed prices in November have been lowered overall; on the other hand, the volume of foreign orders has shrunk significantly in late October, and FOB China’s quotations It fell back slightly to US$2,300, and South Korea’s Asian offer was also adjusted back to around US$2,400, which further affected market confidence
.
A variety of factors have led to a downturn in the market, which will continue to affect the TDI market in the absence of special benefits.

.
Poor downstream demand Domestic TDI downstream manufacturers are generally on the sidelines, and the purchasing atmosphere is very sluggish; some foreign countries have closed their cities again due to the epidemic, and the superimposed US anti-dumping policies have intensified negative sentiment, and overall demand has been weak
.
Domestically, as the TDI market continues to rise, downstream manufacturers are not very motivated to purchase, and mostly consume inventory.
Inquiries on the floor are slow and weak.
Even though some manufacturers' raw material inventory tends to run out, it is based on pessimism about the market outlook.
Emotions are mostly fragmented purchases, and they are still waiting for a lower point to enter the market
.
In terms of exports, foreign orders have shrunk significantly
.
The number of new crown pneumonia infections in Europe and the United States has rebounded, and some countries have once again adopted lockdown measures.
The market prospects are uncertain, which has suppressed terminal consumption
.
On October 28, the U.
S.
International Trade Commission announced the preliminary rulings of anti-dumping investigations on imported mattresses from 7 countries including Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, and formally initiated anti-dumping policies aimed at the 7 countries
.
This is another large mattress dumping investigation following the final ruling of the US anti-dumping of Chinese mattresses in October 2019
.
Starting in 2017, domestic software companies have been troubled by high anti-dumping duties to adjust their strategic layout, and export their products to Europe and the United States through Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Thailand
.
The results of the preliminary rulings of anti-dumping duties on mattresses imported from seven countries by the United States this time directly affected the market share of these companies, which in turn caused a drag on the TDI demand for raw materials
.
Suppliers are slowly accumulating warehouses.
In the early stage, due to force majeure and maintenance shutdowns of the main overseas TDI devices, the export volume of domestic factories surged, and the market rose accordingly
.
With the resumption of foreign installations and the weakening of domestic demand, the supply side may slowly enter a state of accumulation
.
Yanwei introduced that, taking September as an example, TDI exports were about 38,600 tons, an increase of 72.
15% over August and an increase of 324.
54% over the same period last year
.
Driven by export dividends and domestic demand, the inventory of TDI factories dropped rapidly
.
With the gradual resumption of foreign installations and the gradual weakening of domestic demand, the inventory of TDI factories is bound to increase slowly
.
Under the pressure of the library, there is only one way to make profits
.
On November 10, the latest guidance price of Shanghai Covestro was 13,500 yuan, which was lowered by 1,600 yuan from the previous month, which further affected the mentality of manufacturers and made them more active in selling profit
.
Wu Yanni also believes that the supply of the TDI market will be sufficient in the later stage
.
"The resistance to factory shipments is increasing.
In addition, some factories have established a certain amount of inventory.
In addition, the profitability is still relatively active
.
The willingness to ship goods is relatively active .
The trade link has also been enthusiasm for shipments recently, and a small amount of speculative profit has resurfaced, forming a certain supply.

.
" Wu Yanni said
.
On the whole, there are certain negative factors in the fundamentals of the TDI market at present, the disk has not yet shown signs of stopping the decline, the mentality of the industry is unstable, and the price trend may still have a certain downward inertia
.