The butadiene market is difficult to change

In mid-November, the butadiene market fell broadly, and the overall price approached the 6,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) mark, a drop of more than 13%, and the low transaction price in individual regions reached 5300-5700 yuan, a new low throughout the year
.

Regarding the later trend, many analysts believe that the butadiene market, where supply and demand are still in a state of imbalance, has slowed down but has not bottomed out
.

Ample supply

Ample supply of goods Ample supply of goods

Jin Lianchuang analyst Zhang Xiuping introduced that after entering mid-November, the butadiene market has a poor transaction atmosphere, and inventory has gradually accumulated.
In addition, the arrival of goods at the port has led to an increase in tank farm inventory, especially the gradual release of new production capacity in some areas, and the overall market The supply of goods is abundant, and the price of butadiene quickly fell to a low point during the year
.

It is understood that in the second half of this year, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 200,000 tons/year, Luqing Petrochemical's 140,000 tons/year, and Gulei Petrochemical's 130,000 tons/year new butadiene production capacity has been released, and the butadiene production has increased significantly, and the monthly output has been since 2019.
The annual 220,000-250,000 tons increased to the current 300,000-350,000 tons
.

The butadiene market moved forward with heavy burdens, supplier inventories were under pressure, and the market continued to fall

"At present, except for Shandong Huayu, Jiutai Energy, Serbon Petrochemical, and Nanjing Chengzhi butadiene plants that are in a shutdown state, other manufacturers’ plants are operating normally, and the domestic butadiene industry’s operating rate is 71.
8%, a slight increase from the beginning of November.
0.
25%
.

" Zhang Xiuping said

　　Looking at the market outlook, the increase in spot output and on-sales volume combined with the expectation of cargo arrival at the port, the industry has insufficient confidence in the market outlook, and the bearish sentiment spread in the market
.

Recently, the newly-built equipment of the joint venture between Hyundai and Lotte of South Korea will be put into production, which adds to the weight of the empty side, and the butadiene market may continue to drop

　　Raw materials peaked and fell back

Raw materials peak and fall, raw materials peak and fall

　　At the same time that the butadiene market fell sharply, the raw material naphtha, driven by the gasoline and diesel market, emerged from a strong rise
.

Taking Shandong as an example, the price of naphtha has risen by more than 600 yuan

　　"The external naphtha market is not optimistic
.

" Longzhong Information analyst Wang Xiao said that since mid-November, the Asian naphtha market has shown a downward trend, and supply concerns have weakened, suppressing market sentiment

　　Recently, the international oil price, which is the guiding target of the chemical market, has also shown a downward trend, falling to its lowest point since October
.

At the same time, the United States still has the option of releasing its strategic reserves to suppress oil prices.

　　With the cooling of the sentiment of the refined oil market, and downstream industries such as oil products and aromatics gradually entering the off-season, the domestic naphtha market is expected to show a downward trend, and it is difficult to form a strong support for the butadiene market in terms of cost
.

　　Hard to grow in demand

Hard to grow in demand Hard to grow in demand

　　As the largest downstream synthetic rubber industry of butadiene, styrene butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber account for more than 50% of the downstream consumption of butadiene
.

At present, the synthetic rubber market is showing a trend of fluctuations after rising, and it is difficult to drive a substantial increase in butadiene demand

　　He Junsong, a salesperson of Jilin Petrochemical, introduced that the amount of new rubber products entering the market was low before, and the market speculation atmosphere was strong.
Merchants' offer prices rose sharply, and the market demand for inventory replenishment drove the ex-factory price to a high level during the year
.

With the decrease in replenishment demand and the high price restraining real trading, the rubber market offer price has fallen, the focus of negotiation has shifted, and the spot transaction tends to be weak

　　At present, the ex-factory price of styrene butadiene rubber is stable, and the market quotation range is organized
.
The actual downstream demand is deserted, and only the rigid demand is maintained at a low price
.
The drag of supply and demand fundamentals still exists, and under the pressure of the industry's shipments, there may be room for negotiation with a small margin
.

　　Affected by the increased load of Shenhua and Yibang's styrene butadiene rubber plant and the restart of Bridgestone's styrene butadiene rubber plant, the overall operating rate of the styrene butadiene rubber industry has increased to 78.
2%, but the possibility of a substantial increase in the later period is unlikely, which means that It is difficult to purchase large quantities of butadiene raw materials
.

　　In terms of butadiene rubber, due to limited spot resources, the ex-factory and market prices have reached annual highs, and the current highs are sorted out
.
As part of the in-transit cargo sources arrive in the warehouse, and under the pressure of high transactions, the market premium has narrowed.
The downstream market only needs to buy, and the actual price is lower, and the follow-up of transactions is limited
.
At present, the operating rate of the butadiene rubber industry is 61.
14%, down 2.
31% from the first half of November
.
Part of the butadiene rubber plant was temporarily shut down, and the overall operating rate of the drag industry declined slightly
.

　　"In the later stage, due to the sharp decline in the butadiene market, the profits of styrene butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber products have greatly improved.
It is not ruled out that production companies may increase production, but the increase is limited, and it is difficult to lift the butadiene market from the decline.

"He Junsong said analytically
.