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    Home > Chemicals Industry > China Chemical > The butanone market lacks momentum to rebound

    The butanone market lacks momentum to rebound

    • Last Update: 2021-06-21
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Since late May, the downward window of butanone market has opened and prices have fallen sharply
    Up to now, the mainstream quotation in the market is 7500~7600 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is nearly 2,000 yuan lower than the peak in mid-May, a drop of 20%


    Supply expected to increase

     Expected increase in supplyexpected increase in supply

    Jin Lianchuang analyst Yang Guangzhi introduced that in June, the butanone market showed signs of a slight rebound, and the price rose by 100 to 200 yuan
    After the restart of the Hebei Zhongjie Petrochemical plant, the overall operating rate of domestic butanone companies has further increased, which has a significant effect on the industry's mentality.

    However, the rise in the market for raw materials and related products, acetone, has driven the price of butanone to rebound slightly

    At present, production companies have low inventory, low shipping pressure, and strong willingness to stand up for prices
    However, industry players are cautious in entering the market and mostly take a wait-and-see attitude, making the trading atmosphere difficult


    From the perspective of industry operating rate, as Hebei Zhongjie Petrochemical's 30,000-ton/year plant resumes normal operation, the industry's operating rate has increased by 2 percentage points
    The current overhaul equipment involves a production capacity of 165,000 tons/year, accounting for 20.

    75% of the country’s effective production capacity

    The industry generally believes that after the rapid decline in the methyl ethyl ketone market, the price of methyl ethyl ketone rebounded slightly due to middlemen's bottom-hunting replenishment and downstream purchases
    However, in the medium and long term, the MEK plant has a high load, sufficient supply is expected, and the fundamentals are obviously declining.

    The price of MEK is still likely to continue to drop

    Limited cost support

     Limited cost supportlimited cost support

    From the perspective of methyl ethyl ketone raw material ether after carbon four, the price of Shandong ether after carbon four was mainly rising, and the overall trading atmosphere was fair.
    However, as the downstream replenishment ends, the terminal oil market weakens, and the downstream acquires goods.
    Reduced enthusiasm
    At present, the downstream deep processing profit has narrowed, and the upstream refinery shipments are under pressure.

    After the short-term ether, the price of C4 may be down

    According to Liu Ziyuan, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, after the upstream industrial gas prices have continuously dropped to a periodical low, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the main gasoline production has boosted the oil adjustment market.
    With the help of the surge in crude oil, industrial gas prices have risen in June.
    About 300 yuan, manufacturers' inventories have decreased to varying degrees
    "However, the supply of the industrial gas market is still relatively sufficient, the oil blending market is not trending well, and terminal demand has not improved greatly.

    The industrial gas market outlook is expected to be stable, weak, and volatile, and support for the post-ether C4 cost is limited

    From a macro perspective, the recovery of fuel demand in Europe and the United States will open up an upward channel for the crude oil futures market.
    However, at this stage, the room for oil prices to continue to break through after rising to a relatively high level is narrowing, or the high level is the main focus
    In addition, with the advent of the hot weather and the rainy season, the chemical market has entered the traditional off-season, terminal demand has weakened, some companies have increased the pressure on shipments, and the chemical market has insufficient power to pull up.

    The post-ether C4 market is also difficult to survive

      Demand is in the off-season

     Demand is in the off-season Demand is in the off-season

      The butanone market is greatly affected by seasonality
    The current demand is gradual in the off-season, and it is difficult to bring strong support to the methyl ethyl ketone market

      Adhesive is the most important downstream of MEK
    In the off-season of demand, the current operating rate of domestic adhesive manufacturers is low, and the purchase of raw material methyl ethyl ketone remains low

      In other downstream industries, PU and coatings accounted for 36% of the total demand
    Among them, the paint industry is substitutable, and demand has a certain relationship with the prices of products such as methyl ethyl ketone, acetone, and toluene
    Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trading Co.
    , Ltd.
    , said that if the price of methyl ethyl ketone is too high, the downstream will adopt alternative products, which will restrict the rebound of the methyl ethyl ketone market to a certain extent
    At present, the downstream slurry market is also operating weakly, and the terminal demand continues to be sluggish.
    The market is mainly just for entering the market, and the market trading atmosphere is thin

      In addition, the decrease in the export volume of butanone will also increase the pressure on the domestic market
    Affected by the epidemic, foreign demand has declined, and China's butanone exports have also shrunk to varying degrees
    According to incomplete statistics, China exported 10,000 tons of methyl ethyl ketone in April, a year-on-year decrease of 57.
    41% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.
    97%; the cumulative export of methyl ethyl ketone in the previous April was 50,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 40.

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