The calcium carbide market is expected to get out of the bottom

After the price of calcium carbide hit a new high of 7,900 yuan (ton price, the same below) in late October, it then fell broadly to interpret the roller coaster market.

Regarding the later trend, the industry believes that the tight supply and the moderate rebound in demand are expected to help the calcium carbide market to get out of the bottom

The bottom features are obvious

According to Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Chemical Industry Research Institute, in early October, the calcium carbide market was driven by tight supply and the resumption of production by downstream PVC maintenance companies, and prices continued to climb to highs during the year

It is understood that in the face of an unfavorable situation, calcium carbide manufacturers have adopted the strategy of actively shipping and dropping the bag, but the sluggish demand has led to some companies still accumulating inventory

At present, the operating rate of the calcium carbide industry is 73.

In addition, the rapid decline in the price of calcium carbide has caused companies to lose money one after another, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to uphold the price

The cost side is about to stabilize

From the perspective of upstream coal, under policy control, the current price of washed lump coal has been nearly cut from the previous high of 2,300-2,400 yuan

Supported by high profits in the early stage, the production of blue charcoal has increased significantly, and all manufacturers have different levels of inventory

However, the price of orchid charcoal has recently reached downstream psychological expectations, and downstream companies will gradually resume purchasing.

Judging from the current coal market, most areas in the north have entered the heating season, and there will be some support for coal demand

On the whole, with the stabilization of coal prices and the gradual improvement in downstream demand, the risk of continuous decline in the price of blue carbon has basically been eliminated, and the cost will not cause a major drag on the recovery of the calcium carbide market

Moderate rebound in demand

According to Pan Jinsong, a professor-level senior engineer at the Shandong Institute of Industry and Information Technology, from the perspective of downstream PVC, after the rapid decline in the price of raw material calcium carbide, the cost pressure of external PVC companies has eased, profits have begun to rise, and the operating rate of PVC companies has increased significantly, especially The installation load in North China and Central China has increased by 20 to 30%, and the purchase of calcium carbide has increased

At present, domestic PVC prices are relatively low, and the export market is relatively smooth.

From the perspective of downstream 1,4-butanediol, the Shaanhua plant has restarted, but the Dongyuan, Cathay Pacific, Ronghe, and Tianye plants are still under maintenance.

Another downstream vinyl acetate is supported by manufacturers' limited shipments, and the market's bullish sentiment is more obvious