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The center of gravity of Shanghai copper has shifted sharply down this week, almost giving up all of last week's gains
.
At the beginning of the week, due to the failure of the CSPT group to reach an agreement on the joint production reduction, the production reduction expectation was disappointed, and the Shanghai copper rose to show a tired trend; Subsequently, due to the risk of a no-deal Brexit and the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and other geopolitical situations, leading the decline of Shanghai copper, although the domestic People's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.
5 percentage points on January 6, which will release more than 800 billion yuan, but it has always boosted Shanghai copper to a limited extent, and Shanghai copper has slipped all the way under the rising risk aversion of the market
.
The main force of Shanghai copper from the high of 49,750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, successively fell below the 10-day moving average and the 20-day moving average support, and the low level has fallen below the 49,000 yuan / ton mark, giving up all the gains last week
.
In terms of the external market, the center of gravity of London copper moved slightly down this week, and the overall center of gravity stabilized with last week
.
Mainly due to the failure of the CSPT group's production reduction expectations at the beginning of the week, the London copper rush was weak, and due to the Brexit incident and the rising geopolitical contradictions in the Middle East, coupled with the reappearance of trade disputes in the United States and Europe due to the technology tax, the market weakened its preference for risk assets, and the London copper fell slightly; However, due to the good performance of Markit manufacturing PMI data released by the euro area and important European economies such as France and Germany during the week, it limited the decline of London copper
.
London copper fell slightly from around $6220/ton at the beginning of the week, and then the center of gravity continued to stabilize around $6200/ton, down 0.
67%
weekly.
In terms of spot, spot performance this week first declined and then rose
.
Before the New Year's Day Festival at the beginning of the week, due to the end of the 2019 transaction, a large number of market enterprises entered the settlement state, the trade flow was significantly reduced, under the leadership of individual traders, there was still a small number of price reductions, the lowest quotation was 180-discount 120 yuan / ton, and there was even a discount of more than 200 yuan / ton for the next
month's pass 。 Then entered the new capital settlement cycle in 2020, the new long order began to be implemented, the company's funds were loose at the beginning of the year, ushering in a wave of positive trading, low-priced sources attracted traders to buy, holders took the opportunity to actively raise the quotation, the spot soon pulled above flat water, and there is still room for upward adjustment, the weekend quotation premium 10-liter 40 yuan / ton
.
Although the new year ushered in a positive continuous, but the colored plate green fat red thin significant differentiation, in the current international geopolitical turmoil is still non-stop, it is expected that the more sensitive nerves of the financial market will be eased due to successive favorable interests, it is expected that strong cyclical assets such as bulk industrial products will usher in positive momentum, copper prices upward try to break through the 50,000 mark, the subsequent rebound requires further cooperation between macro and industry, and it is operationally recommended that Shanghai copper continue to hold
.
