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On December 28, Sinopec released the "China Energy Outlook 2060" report
in Beijing.
The report believes that China's primary energy consumption is expected to peak in 2030~2035, with a peak of about 6.
03 billion tons of standard coal, and will drop to about 5.
6 billion tons of standard coal in 2060; it is expected that China's energy activities-related carbon emissions will peak before 2030, and after removing the carbon sequestration part of raw material energy, the peak will be about 9.
9 billion tons, and it will drop to 1.
7 billion tons in 2060, and carbon neutrality
will be achieved through CCUS and carbon sinks.
Starting from the analysis of the historical relationship between energy consumption and economic and social industrial development and change, the report analyzes the historical law of energy development and the key factors affecting energy transition from four aspects: economic development, social evolution, technological progress and policy guidance, studies and judges the development trend of the main influencing factors and the development process of energy transition, puts forward the conceptual system of "energy balance triangle", and looks forward to China's energy transformation path based on the dynamic balance of energy triangle, and constructs security challenges, green urgency, Coordinate the development of three energy transition development scenarios
.
Based on model prediction and comprehensive analysis, the report gives the prediction of total energy consumption and carbon emissions in each major stage of China, the forecast of primary energy consumption by variety, and the judgment
of energy consumption trend of key end-use sectors from now to 2060.
Ren Jingdong, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, believes that the "China Energy Outlook 2060" will provide an important reference for relevant departments, enterprises and institutions to carry out energy work and help the development of
the energy industry.
He expounded the connotation of building a new energy system from four aspects, and proposed that achieving energy security and stability, ensuring the smooth operation of the economy and society is the primary task, realizing green and low-carbon energy, promoting the integrated development of fossil energy and renewable energy is the only way, achieving energy economic efficiency and building an energy power is an important mission, and realizing a high level of opening up in the energy field and opening up a new situation of win-win energy cooperation is a common responsibility
.
Li Yunpeng, Secretary of the Party Committee of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said that the "China Energy Outlook 2060" rationally studies and judges energy transition and medium and long-term energy demand, which provides a new perspective
for China's energy and chemical industry to scientifically plan the transformation and development path under the "dual carbon" goal.
Zhao Dong, General Manager of Sinopec, said that "China Energy Outlook 2060" is the latest achievement of Sinopec to explore and answer how to take the road of high-quality development of energy with Chinese characteristics, reflecting Sinopec's observation and thinking on the law of energy evolution and the systematic judgment
of China's future energy development trend.
Sinopec is willing to work with all parties to strengthen academic exchanges, deepen all-round cooperation, jointly promote more high-level and high-quality energy research results and energy development achievements, and work together to accelerate the planning and construction of a new energy system and ensure national energy security
.
At the press conference, Zhang Yuqing, former deputy director of the National Energy Administration, Li Yang, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and chairman of the China Petrochemical Science and Technology Association, Xie Qiuye, senior consultant, former party secretary and former president of the General Institute of Electric Power Planning and Design, Wang Zhen, secretary of the party committee and president of CNOOC Energy Economic Research Institute, and Guo Jiaofeng, deputy director and researcher of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, exchanged and discussed the content of the report, believing that it has both theoretical research value and practical reference significance, especially based on the dimension of "energy balance triangle".
The general direction, general goal and general principle of national economic and social progress and energy transformation and development have been deeply integrated and unified, and the development path of energy transformation under different situations has been given, providing new ideas
for the development of the industry.
It is reported that "China Energy Outlook 2060" is an important research result
of Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute.
This is also the first time Sinopec has publicly released the results
related to the medium- and long-term outlook for energy.