The coal tar market returns rationally

With the optimization and adjustment of the national epidemic prevention and control policy, the domestic coal tar market began to decline rapidly after hitting a new high of 6,500 yuan (ton price, the same below) in mid-December 2022, and the coal tar market began to return rationally after rising for nearly half a year and constantly hitting a new high
.
As of January 5, the reference price of the domestic coal tar market was 5867.
50 yuan, down 4.
67% compared with January 1, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere was gradually intensifying
.

"The adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy has a great
impact on the short-term trend of the coal tar market.
In early December 2022, the operating rate of coal tar deep processing enterprises was still steadily increasing, but in the middle and late months, the impact of the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies began to appear, and the operating rate of some enterprises decreased due to insufficient personnel, and the demand for high-priced coal tar raw materials also began to decrease.

At the same time, due to the gradual smoothing of logistics in various places, the price difference between coal tar sources began to narrow, and the price in the high-price area took the lead in falling
rapidly.
In addition, due to the recovery of the coke market, the operating rate of coke enterprises in various places has increased significantly, and the coal tar production capacity has been rapidly released, which is also one of the reasons for the rational return of the main market of
coal tar.
Liaoning coal tar trader Huo Sheng said
.

Sudden drop in demand

According to the statistics of Henan Chemical Network, the average operating rate of domestic coal tar deep processing enterprises in December 2022 was about 47%, and the operating capacity was 11.
08 million tons as of the end of December, a slight increase of 1%
over November.

Huo Sheng said that with the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, the staff attendance rate of coal tar deep processing enterprises in various places has declined; At the same time, due to the near end of the year, due to the consideration of safe production, the start of coal tar deep processing enterprises is restricted, and the terminal market demand is also seriously insufficient, resulting in a decline in profits and operating rates in the coal tar deep processing industry
.
Affected by this, the demand for coal tar market suddenly decreased in a short period of time, resulting in a general decline in bidding prices in various places at the end of December 2022, such as the highest bidding price of coal tar in Shanxi in mid-December 2022 was as high as 6,680 yuan, and the bidding price at the end of the month has fallen back to about 6,100 yuan, and the coal tar market has opened a rational return to the New
Year's Eve market.

Regional circulation accelerated

Meng Jianjie, manager of the marketing department of Zhengzhou Dayou Gas Co.
, Ltd.
, reflected that the change in epidemic prevention policies has a great impact on automobile transportation, especially in December 2022, when the vehicle circulation increased
significantly.
Affected by this, due to the poor transportation of coal tar and the high price of the market in the first decline, such as Shanxi, Hebei and other places coal tar prices fell more, weekly decline of more than 5%, after the acceleration of regional circulation, the price difference between coal tar regions began to narrow.

The reporter learned from the market line of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other places that affected by the decline in coal tar prices in Shanxi and Hebei, on December 28, 2022, Shanxi Xinshi and Baogang Qinghua respectively had a bidding price of 6,000 yuan, and the price of coal tar in Wuhai in Inner Mongolia even fell below 5,900 yuan, dragging down the surrounding market
.

"The smooth flow of logistics and transportation has returned the flow of goods between coal tar regions to normal, but with the arrival of the Spring Festival, we should pay attention to the impact of logistics and transportation on coal tar prices in January, especially in remote areas
such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang.
" Meng Jianjie said
so.

Coke enterprises started to improve

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national coke output in November 2022 was 37.
39 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.
5%.

According to this accounting, coal tar production in November 2022 was about 1.
49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.
46%.

According to the statistics of a sample of 230 independent coke enterprises across the country, as of December 23, 2022, the comprehensive utilization rate of coking enterprise capacity was 73.
4%, an increase of 5.
8%
compared with the end of November.

"On the occasion of the New Year, in addition to the impact on the market due to the adjustment of epidemic policies, the sudden high price of coal tar in this round also has the factor of continuous increase in the operating rate of coking enterprises, and it is not ruled out that coking enterprises will implement product promotion
behaviors at the end of the year to release inventory for returning funds.
" On the occasion of the Spring Festival and the retreat of market highs, the wait-and-see mood of coal tar traders began to intensify
.
Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator, analyzed
.

Industry insiders believe that there are still many uncertainties in the current international and domestic macroeconomic environment, especially the new high chemical products market will face a certain risk
of correction.
However, the current domestic coking enterprise start is still relatively high, coal tar supply is stable, and before the Spring Festival downstream coal tar deep processing enterprises have a certain coal tar stocking plan, the interaction between the two, is expected to form a new market supply and demand balance point, coal tar prices again a sharp fall is not likely, the probability of narrow finishing during the Spring Festival is greater
.