The contradiction between supply and demand still exists, and the Shanghai rubber is weak and volatile

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1805 contract opening price 14050 yuan / ton, the highest price 14090 yuan / ton, the lowest price 13980 yuan / ton, the latest price 14050 yuan / ton; Down 0 yuan / ton, down 0%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1805 contract is 206.
6 yen/kg, the highest price is 206.
9 yen/kg, the lowest price is 202 yen/kg, and the closing price is 203.
4 yen/kg; The trading volume was 4156 lots, and the position volume was 10269 lots
.

Domestic sales area market: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation of 12100 yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16-year full latex quotation of 12100 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk quotation 11700 yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17-year full latex quotation 12300 yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 5730 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 283620 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 3060 tons, Yunnan Ping, Shandong increased by 2670 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan Ping
.

The 1805 contract weakened intraday volatility on Friday and flattened
overnight.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line fell back below the moving average system, and the technical indicator MACD green column continued; On the daily chart, the K-line crosses the moving average system, and the technical indicator MACD red column turns green
.
The volume and position increased, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 80030 (+539), short 119659 (+3530), net short 39629 lots
.

Related information: In January and November, Thailand exported 360,000 tons of natural rubber, an increase of 17% year-on-year and 14.
7%
month-on-month.
According to the historical export data of Thai Tianjiao from 1998 to the present according to QinRex, the export volume of Tianjiao this month is the highest value
in November and previous months of the calendar year.
According to the data as of December, it is also second only to 396,000 tons in December 2013
.
Except for the export of tobacco flake glue, which fell by 1.
3% month-on-month and the export of standard rubber fell by 9.
9% year-on-year, the export data of other sky rubber increased
.
Among them, tobacco film gum increased by 40.
7% year-on-year, and standard rubber increased by 15%
year-on-year.
Latex increased 10% year-over-year and 4.
3%
sequentially.

In the first 11 months of this year, Thailand's exports of tianjiao increased by 0.
9% year-on-year, of which tobacco film gum increased by 27.
7% year-on-year, and standard latex fell by 8.
3% and 5.
5%
respectively.

Overall, as of November, Thailand's standard rubber exports have continued to decline year-on-year since April, down 131,000 tons
from last year.
However, from January to November this year, Thailand's mixed rubber exports increased by 64.
6% year-on-year, with a net increase of 416,000 tons
.
Excluding the decrease in the export of standard rubber, it still increased by 285,000 tons
.

At present, it is still the peak season for rubber production in Southeast Asia, and the import volume of substitutes at the end of the year may also increase
in December.
The contradiction between supply and demand still exists, pay attention to the shipment situation in the spot market and the willingness
of downstream manufacturers to stock goods.
The specific measures taken by the Thai government to launch the project to stabilize rubber prices have been detailed, but the market response has been mediocre.

Exchange inventories have increased significantly, downstream procurement willingness is slightly better than pessimistic expectations, and it is expected to be dominated by weak shocks during the day
.