The demand for H1N1 vaccine in weak market of pharmaceutical sector is complex

As the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic is further raging, the concept stocks of influenza A in the capital market have benefited from the misfortune, and have bucked the trend in the weak market On September 7, driven by A-flow concept stocks, the entire pharmaceutical sector recorded a 3.37% increase, ranking third in the index of each sector With the increasing number of confirmed cases of H1N1, the manufacturers of H1N1 vaccine, such as Hualan biology and Tiantan biology, began to be placed in the spotlight of the capital market, and with the start of national storage, Zui became a hot "sweet cake" Some enterprises related to H1N1 treatment, such as Haizheng pharmaceutical industry, were also active after a period of consolidation Collection and storage action on September 4, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on releasing the production plan for collection and storage of influenza A H1N1 vaccine, and started the collection and storage of 13 million doses of influenza A vaccine Among them, Kexing biology and Hualan biology were told to produce 3.3 million doses and 4 million doses of H1N1 vaccine before September 15, respectively In response, Li Yu, an analyst with CIC securities, pointed out that the existing influenza vaccine orders in developed countries can cover more than 30% of the population, and the goal is to cover all the population, while the developing countries plan to cover 1% - 20% of the population After the completion of the collection and storage, it is expected that the state will rapidly increase the collection and storage efforts, and the number of the collection and storage will increase to 5% of the population or more than 10% of the population Zhang Mingfang, China Merchants Securities, also said in a research report released on September 7 that it is estimated that the central and local governments will receive and store 65 million copies of H1N1 vaccine by the end of the year, of which 52 million may be purchased by local governments according to category II vaccine At the same time, Zhang Mingfang predicted that there are also expectations for the export of H1N1 vaccine to South Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand and other places Hualan biology has made preliminary contact with some South Korean enterprises In a statement released on September 5, Hualan biology said that some Korean pharmaceutical companies had preliminary contact with vaccine subsidiaries controlled by the company, but the company has not yet reached any intention with Korean pharmaceutical companies on sales price and quantity At present, the vaccine company has only started the registration of influenza A (H1N1) vaccine in South Korea according to the relevant regulations of South Korea Although the next step of national reserve collection remains to be further clarified, and the issue of foreign orders with higher price expectations is still unresolved, but the relevant enterprises have been rubbing their hands Hualan biology announced that it will produce 13 million doses of H1N1 vaccine before the national day Kexing bio is expected to produce 5 million doses According to CIC, other manufacturers such as shangshengsuo, Dalian yalifeng, Zhejiang Tianyuan and Tiantan biology are expected to receive the production approval from CFDA soon and accept the national storage task Unpredictable demand: stimulated by the national policy of collecting and storing H1N1 vaccine, on September 7, Hualan biology experienced a "one" fluctuation, with an increase of 60% from a new low of 28.14 yuan set on August 18 to the close on September 7; Tiantan biology was no inferior, with an increase of more than 50% during that period But different voices began to appear Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, told the media that it is still necessary to wait and see, and the waiting time for vaccine safety issues will be longer, so citizens should not rush to vaccinate In this way, the future demand for H1N1 vaccine will become confusing Ye Songtao, an analyst in the healthcare industry at Changjiang Securities, said safety should be guaranteed if it can pass the review and be approved for listing Experts think that the problem of safety to be determined should be that the vaccine cycle is short, such as Hua Lan biology, it only takes three months from the time when the virus strain is obtained to the time when the vaccine is put on the market