The distribution and structure of China's agricultural production will change due to climate warming

Lead: Xinhua Beijing, May 6 - agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change Since 1985, there have been 18 warm winters in China In the face of global warming, the distribution and structure of agricultural production will change in the future According to Professor Ding Yihui, special climate consultant of the China Meteorological Administration, the research on the impact of climate change on agriculture in China shows that when the annual average temperature increases by 1 ℃, the number of days that the accumulated temperature is greater than 10 ℃ can be extended for about 15 days nationwide on average The northern boundary of safe planting of winter wheat will move northward from the current Great Wall line to Shenyang Zhangjiakou Baotou Urumqi line Climate warming will also cause great changes in crop planting system in China According to Ding Yihui, it is calculated that by 2050, climate warming will make the northern boundary of the three cropping system move as much as 500 kilometers north, from the Yangtze River basin to the Yellow River Basin; while the two cropping system will move north to the central part of the current one cropping system, and the area of the one cropping system will be reduced by 23.1% In addition, after the climate warming, the distribution of main crop varieties in China will also change At present, the winter wheat varieties popularized in North China can not meet the requirements of vernalization for low temperature because they cannot go through enough cold period in winter, so they will have to be replaced by other types of Winter Wheat Varieties (such as semi winter) High temperature resistant rice varieties will be dominant in the south, and will gradually develop to the north The early maturing varieties of Maize in Northeast China are gradually replaced by middle and late maturing varieties Ding Yihui said that after the climate warming, the evaporation will increase correspondingly If the precipitation does not increase significantly, it will make the farming pastoral ecotone in China expand to the south The boundary of the farming pastoral ecotone in the northeast and Inner Mongolia will move about 70 kilometers to the south, the boundary of the farming pastoral ecotone in the north of North China will move about 150 kilometers to the south, and the boundary of the farming pastoral ecotone in the northwest will move about 20 kilometers to the south Although the migration of the farming pastoral transition zone to the South can increase the grassland area, but because the farming pastoral transition zone is a potential desertification area, if the new transition zone is not protected, it may also become a desertification area (Yao Runfeng)