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LME copper opened low on Wednesday and continued to fall, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at $5920 / ton, down 0.
45%
on the day.
The main 1912 contract of Shanghai copper fell back, with the highest 47630 yuan / ton and the lowest 47160 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 47190 yuan / ton, down 0.
13% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 118,700 lots, an increase of 38,726 lots per day, and the position was 191,200 lots, a daily decrease of 3,670 lots
.
The basis was expanded to 145 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai copper from 1912 to 2001 narrowed to -110 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.
7 in October, up from 52.
6 in September and 53.
5
expected.
In 2019, the 14th batch of copper scrap and scrap import approval volume was 11,110 tons, and up to now, the approved import volume of copper scrap and scrap in the fourth quarter is 68,475 tons, only 14%
of the total amount of 484217 tons in the third quarter.
Spot analysis: On November 6, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 47300-47370 yuan / ton, the average price was 47335 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 150 yuan / ton
.
Holders rely on the willingness to raise prices, but the activity is significantly lower than the previous two days, the downstream maintains rigid demand, copper rises, trade speculation activity is low, because the high premium has lacked profit margins
.
However, the recent easing of funds, the cost of funds has declined, and at the same time the import ratio has declined, and the import window has been closed for half a month, and whether the subsequent import window can be opened needs continued attention
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 69,111 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 1,406 tons per day; On November 5, LME copper stocks were 248,000 tons, a daily decrease of 3,475 tons, a decline of four consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 1912 contract were 56883 lots, with a daily increase of 237 lots, short positions of 70136 lots, a daily decrease of 1284 lots, a net short position of 13253 lots, a daily decrease of 1521 lots, more increase and short, and a decrease
in net space.
Market research and judgment: On November 6, the main force of Shanghai copper 1912 rushed back down
.
The US economic data is strong, the US dollar continues to be strong, and downstream demand is still weak, the downstream copper operating rate has declined, global copper explicit inventories have rebounded, and there is pressure on copper prices, but the Sino-US trade negotiations have improved, market risk sentiment has rebounded, upstream copper mine production is frequent, scrap copper import approvals have fallen sharply, raw material supply is tight, and copper prices are strong
.
In terms of spot, holders rely on the willingness to hold prices, but the activity is significantly lower than the previous two days, the downstream maintains rigid demand, copper rises, trade speculation activity is low, because the high premium has lacked profit margins
.
Technically, the main 1912 contract shadow of Shanghai copper tested the previous high, focusing on the support at the 46900 position, and it is expected that the short-term low will recover
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1912 contract can be long around 47100 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 46900 yuan / ton
.
