The epidemic data has improved, and the demand for aluminum market is expected to gradually return

On Friday, Lun aluminum fell sharply to recover Thursday's gains, closing near
$1720.
Shanghai aluminum fell under pressure around 13800 on Friday, and continued to close a small negative
.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are rising, but affected by the weak market in the external market, and the forward fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are not optimistic
.

In terms of news, there were 1,933 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Hubei on February 17, and the domestic epidemic data continued to improve
over the weekend.
Eurozone Q4 GDP was 0.
9% year-on-year preliminary versus 1% expected and 1%
prior.
US retail sales in January were 0.
3% m/m vs 0.
3% expected vs.
0.
3%
prior.
On Friday, European economic data fell short of expectations, the euro fell to a new recent low and the dollar rose
.
At night
, the outer disk is under pressure with non-ferrous metals.

The improvement of epidemic data and the implementation of a series of policy measures have boosted market sentiment, and the state has actively promoted the resumption of work, and real industrial demand is expected to gradually return
.

On the cost side, alumina prices rose slightly this week, due to the greater pressure of logistics and transportation in various places, the tight supply of raw materials for alumina plants, some enterprises in Jinyu region reduced production and suppressed production, and aluminum plant alumina inventories were tight, and the market was bullish on alumina prices in the short term, thereby supporting the cost side
of electrolytic aluminum.

On the supply side, although aluminum companies have temporarily postponed the resumption of production and production progress in order to ensure the steady progress of production, and the impact on train transportation is very small, it is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will remain cumulative until March; On the demand side, the latest social inventory of aluminum ingots was 1.
093 million tons, an increase of 148,000 tons per week, which suppressed aluminum prices
.

At present, it seems that most downstream enterprises have chosen to delay the resumption of work due to safety considerations, and consumption is still suppressed, paying close attention to the downstream resumption of
work.
In the short term, the accumulation of stocks continues to put pressure on aluminum prices, but after looking forward to downstream recovery, aluminum prices have greater upside
.