The FAO predicts that the price of farmed fish will rise faster than that of wild fish

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) forecasts that slower growth in fisheries and aquaculture production will lead to a rise in sea product prices by nearly a quarter over the next decade as demand for marine products increases.
report, State of the World's Fisheries and Aquaculture 2020 (or SOFIA 2020), predicts that total fish production will grow from the current 179 million tonnes to about 204 million tonnes by 2030.
, the growth rate between 2007 and 2018 was more dynamic, at 27 per cent.
aquaculture will continue to be the driving force behind the growth of global fish production, contributing 109 million metric tons by 2030, an increase of 32 per cent, or 26 million metric tons, over 2018.
average annual growth rate of aquaculture will slow from 4.6 per cent in 2007-2018 to 2.3 per cent in 2019-2030, due to stricter environmental regulations, reduced water supply and suitable production sites, increased aquaculture diseases and reduced aquaculture productivity gains.
report also predicts that, as a continuation of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), China will implement new fisheries and aquaculture reforms and policies that will slow the growth of China's fisheries and aquaculture, stimulate price increases and have a global impact.
in addition to being the world's leading fish producer, China has been a major exporter since 2002.
china is the third-largest importer by value since 2011.
, the price of farmed fish will rise by 24 per cent by 2030, while the price of wild fish will rise by 23 per cent.
according to the FAO, on the demand side, the factors affecting this trend will include increased incomes, population growth and higher meat prices.
supply side, stable production in the fishing industry, slower growth in aquaculture production and increased input costs such as feed, energy and oil may play a role.
the report predicts that nominal prices of fishmeal and fish oil will rise by 30 per cent and 13 per cent respectively by 2030 because of strong global demand.
, combined with high consumer demand for fish, is expected to increase the average price of fish in international trade by 22 per cent by 2030 compared with 2018, according to the report.
, however, in real terms and taking into account inflation, it is assumed that all average prices will fall slightly over the forecast period while remaining "relatively high".
for individual fishery commodities, price fluctuations may be more pronounced due to fluctuations in supply and demand.
, since aquaculture is expected to account for a higher share of the world's fish supply, FAO believes that aquaculture may have a greater impact on prices in domestic and international fish markets.
according to the FAO Fish Price Index (FPI), overall fish prices have been on the rise in recent years owing to limited supply growth, particularly in fishing fisheries, and continued strong demand worldwide.
, however, international fish prices fell by an average of 3% in 2019 compared with the previous year.
This is mainly due to the decline in the prices of many important farmed species, including shrimp, salmon, Vietnamese bass, mackerel and eryth fish, but the price of canned tuna has also fallen owing to a lack of supply.
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