The first quarter of real estate continued to differentiate or make the second quarter of housing prices stop falling back up

China Coatings Network
News:
In January-March 2015, China's real estate development investment amounted to 166.51 billion yuan, up 8.5% in nominal terms (9.5% in real terms excluding price factors), down 1.9 percentage points from January-February. Among them, residential investment of 1115.6 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9%, the growth rate fell by 3.2 percentage points. According to China Report Hall released China's real estate industry status quo and response policy analysis statistics, residential investment accounted for 67.0% of real estate development investment. Data released recently by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in March 70 large and medium-sized cities month-on-month housing prices generally stabilized, cities continue to divide, among them, the average price of first-tier cities from the decline to rise, second- and third-tier cities month-on-month average house price decline narrowed. Industry insiders believe that the first-tier city housing prices have stabilized, the central bank this time to reduce or will make the second quarter of housing prices stop falling back up. Housing enterprises should control the two rate cuts after the run to inventory "window period", and home buyers should control the rate cut and other policies short-term dividends brought about by the purchase "window period." Data showing that in March 2015, 50 cities with new housing prices fell month-on-month in 70 large and medium-sized cities, 16 fewer than in February. There were 8 and 12 flat and rising cities, respectively, an increase of 6 and 10 from February; Second-hand housing prices fell month-on-month in 48 cities, 13 fewer than in February; There were 10 and 12 flat and rising cities, respectively, an increase of 6 and 7 from February. By city, the combined average prices of new and second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.1% and flat in February to 0.2% and 0.3% in March, respectively. Among the four first-tier cities, Shenzhen's new housing prices rose the most month-on-month, by 0.7%; Beijing rose 0.3% month-on-month; Shanghai was flat month-on-month; Guangzhou fell 0.1% month-on-month. "In terms of the 70-city house price index, there were 50 cities where house prices fell month-on-month in March, still the majority, but 16 fewer than in February!" On average, February's month-on-month decline was 0.5 per cent, while March's decline narrowed rapidly to 0.2 per cent, meaning that house prices are expected to stop falling in the second quarter (may be more likely in May), and the front line has begun to rebound. Industry insiders say. According to Yubo Zhiye Market Research Center released the "2012-2016 real estate industry market development pattern and investment prospects survey and analysis report" forecast, for this reduction, the industry believes that the reduction is to deal with the pressure of the domestic market downturn, 1% of the reserve requirement ratio changes can bring about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity to the market, of which, a large part will flow to the real estate market. Especially in the absence of a complete improvement in the economy, the rate cut and a series of other real estate stimulus policies will continue to appear. "Don't underestimate the government's determination to stabilize the property market, which is to stabilize the current Chinese economy." He said that although from the current point of view, the country's real estate fundamentals have been different, is unlikely to rise across the scale, but for first- and second-tier cities, the market trend in 2015 will be significantly better. Grasp the two window professionals believe that, from the industry point of view, although the focus of this reduction to small, three rural and other tilt, but these areas of commercial banks are very attractive, banks are born poor love rich, capital-intensive industries more beneficial, of which banks benefit the most, followed by real estate. Increased liquidity is bound to benefit the stock and property markets. From last year's September 30 central bank rescue, November interest rate cut, February 2015 rate cut, March interest rate cut, late March six ministries new policy to the current re-rate, this series of policy easing are driving the recovery of the property market, this time to further strengthen. He believes that the bottom season of the first-tier cities is gone, and the second-tier cities are just in time. Industry analysts believe that the central bank after the downgrade, increased the second home loan down payment landing feasibility, improved demand follow-up continued release to be guaranteed. First-tier cities and some second-tier cities housing prices are bound to rise, the property market "differentiation" characteristics will be more obvious, second-tier cities will accelerate the process of inventory, most third- and fourth-tier cities want to run the theme unchanged. Housing enterprises should actively adjust the pace of pushing the market, to control the two rate cuts after the run to inventory "window period", and buyers should control the reduction of interest rate cuts and other "rescue market" policy short-term dividends brought about by the purchase of "window period."