The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Food Price Index drops for the first time in 12 months

Rome, July 8, 2021-A benchmark report released today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) showed that international food prices fell for the first time in June after twelve months of rising
.

 

The FAO Food Price Index for June 2021 averaged 124.
6 points, a decrease of 2.
5% month-on-month, but still an increase of 33.
9% year-on-year
.
After continuously rising for 12 consecutive months, the index fell for the first time in June
.

 

The FAO Food Price Index tracks the trends in international prices of the world’s most traded food commodities
.
The decline in the index in June reflects the decline in the prices of vegetable oils and grains, while the prices of dairy products have fallen slightly
.
The fall in the prices of the above three types of food commodities not only offset the rise in meat and sugar prices, but also lowered the overall index
.

 

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index fell 9.
8% month-on-month, a four-month low
.
The significant month-on-month decline mainly reflects the decline in the prices of palm oil, soybean oil and sunflower oil
.

 

The FAO Cereal Price Index fell 2.
6% month-on-month in June, but it still increased by 33.
8% year-on-year
.
Among them, international corn prices fell by 5% this month, one of the reasons is that the recent corn harvest in Argentina was higher than expected, and the supply increased, which led to the price drop
.
International wheat prices fell slightly by 0.
8% in June
.
At present, production prospects in many key wheat producing regions around the world are improving, which offset the upward pressure on prices caused by the drought in North America
.

 

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 119.
9 points in June, a decrease of 1.
0% from the previous month
.
The international prices of all dairy products in the index have fallen, and the price of butter has fallen the most, mainly due to the rapid decline in global import demand and the slight increase in inventories, especially in Europe
.

 

The FAO Sugar Price Index rose against the trend when overall food prices fell, up 0.
9% month-on-month, rising for the third consecutive month, setting a new high for many years
.
At present, Brazil, the world's largest sugar exporter, is suffering from adverse climatic conditions, which has caused the world to worry about its sugar crop production and has brought upward pressure on sugar prices
.

 

　　The FAO Meat Price Index rose 2.
1% month-on-month in June, rising for the 9th consecutive month, up 15.
6% year-on-year, but still 8.
0% below the peak set in August 2014
.

 

　　Since 2017/18, world cereal stocks are expected to increase for the first time in 2021/22

 

　　The latest FAO cereal supply and demand briefing was released today.
FAO's forecast for global cereal production in 2021 has been slightly lowered to 2.
817 billion tons, a 1.
7% increase (47.
8 million tons) compared with 2020, a record high
.

 

　　Among them, the forecast for global coarse grain production has been reduced to 1.
513 billion tons, 3 million tons less than expected last month
.
Due to the continued dry weather, the forecast for Brazil's corn production has been revised down sharply, leading to a decline in the global forecast
.

 

　　Affected by the dry weather in the Near East on the prospects for wheat production, the forecast for world wheat production in 2021 is lowered by 1 million tons to 784.
7 million tons, which is still a 1.
2% increase from the same period in 2020
.

 

　　In comparison, the global rice production forecast for 2021 is slightly raised from June to 519.
5 million tons, an increase of 1.
0% from 2020, setting a new record
.

 

　　The forecast of world cereal utilization in 2021/22 was revised down by 15 million tons from the previous month to 2.
81 billion tons, an increase of 1.
5% compared with 2020/21
.
The main reason for the downward adjustment is that the utilization of feed corn in China is lower than expected
.

 

　　World cereal stocks at the end of the 2021/22 season are expected to be higher than the beginning level
.
Since 2017/18, world cereal stocks have ushered in an upward adjustment for the first time.
This month’s forecast has been revised up to 836 million tons, an increase of 2.
4% from last year’s low
.
Among them, the main driving factor is that China's corn stocks are expected to be at a high level
.

 

　　The latest FAO forecast for world grain trade in 2021/22 has been revised up slightly from June, reaching a peak of 472 million tons, which can be attributed mainly to China's large imports of corn, pushing global corn trade to a new high
.

 

　　Food insecurity and the new crown epidemic

 

　　The latest report on "Crop Prospects and Food Situation" released on Thursday showed that the multiple impacts of the loss of income caused by the new crown epidemic have exacerbated the challenges of vulnerability and food insecurity
.
Under the influence of conflicts and climate-related shocks, the level of serious food insecurity remains high
.
FAO estimates that 45 countries in the world currently need food assistance from outside, including 34 African countries, 9 Asian countries and 2 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean
.

 

　　The "Crop Prospects and Food Situation" report also provides the latest data on low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDC)
.
According to the latest assessment results, the total cereal output of the 47 low-income food-deficit countries in 2021 is expected to decrease by 2.
1% to 190 million tons
.
The main reason is that the production forecast of Asian countries in the Near East has been lowered
.
The situation in Afghanistan and Syria is particularly severe.
The widespread and prolonged drought has reduced production and cast a shadow on the prospects for this year's production
.
Among the low-income food-deficit countries in Africa, Somalia is expected to see a significant decline in production this year due to scarce precipitation; at the same time, due to conflicts that continue to destroy the production capacity of farmers, production in some West African countries is also expected to decline slightly
.
In southern African countries, production is expected to increase, bringing more food supplies to families here, partially offsetting the adverse effects of the new crown epidemic
.

 

　　The 45 countries in need of external food assistance are: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea , Swaziland, Ethiopia, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Kenya, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda, Venezuela, Yemen, Zambia and Zimbabwe
.