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    Home > Chemicals Industry > China Chemical > The fundamentals are positive and the lack of PTA continues to oscillate

    The fundamentals are positive and the lack of PTA continues to oscillate

    • Last Update: 2021-06-07
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Due to the expected seasonal decline in the start of terminal weaving, the risk of reduced production and negative impacts in the polyester market, and the weakening of the cost push, PTA is likely to continue its oscillation trend, and processing fees will still restrict its upward expansion.


    In April, the factory increased its overhaul, and the supply contraction helped accelerate the depletion of social inventories, and the PTA oscillation center of gravity rose slowly.
    However, due to the weak follow-up of terminal demand and poor transmission of polyester inventory, PTA has not broken the oscillation range since the end of February.


    Destocking slowed down


    In April, PTA maintenance increased, including Fujian Baihong, Jiaxing Petrochemical, Zhuhai BP, Chuanneng Chemical, Xinfengming, Yisheng Dalian, Hengli Petrochemical and other large manufacturers.
    The parking capacity during the peak period of maintenance was as high as 16.
    35 million tons, and the industry load was the lowest.


    It fell to 73.
    6%.



    At present, the restart time of Hanbang and Reignwood is yet to be determined.
    Zhongtai, Chuanneng and Xinfengming 1# plan to resume production in mid-to-late May, and Hengli 5#, Xinfengming 2#, Liwan Chemical and Yangzi will resume production in May.


    There are parking arrangements for petrochemical companies, but the planned maintenance volume is expected to be lower than in April as a whole.



    Polyester plant chooses to reduce production and load


    As the upstream PX and PTA production capacity tends to be surplus, the industry’s processing profit expansion space is limited.
    The current industrial chain profits are concentrated in the polyester link.
    However, under the stimulation of the high-profit environment, the polyester plant has continued to operate at a high load since March, which is PTA The market provides better demand support, which is conducive to the acceleration of PTA social inventory.


    However, during this year's "Golden Three and Silver Four" period, terminal demand did not exceed expectations.



    Costs are pushing up and the momentum is weakening


    In the first quarter, PTA had two sets of 4.
    9 million tons of Baihong and Shenghong units put into production, and the domestic PX was zero.
    The improvement of the supply and demand structure prompted the destocking.


    Since February, the cracking spread has gradually deviated from the bottom area of ​​last year.
    The current Asian PX/naphtha and PX/cloth oil spreads are maintained at around US$250 and US$350.



    On the whole, the PTA maintenance in May will continue, but the intensity will decrease from the previous month.
    However, due to the expected seasonal decline in the start of terminal weaving, the risk of reduced production and negative impacts in the polyester market, and the weakening of the cost boosting momentum, it is expected that PTA will continue to oscillate, and processing fees will still restrict its upward expansion space.


    Pay attention to equipment maintenance and repairs.



      Transfer from: Futures Daily

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