The fundamentals are still weak, and the Shanghai rubber shock is the main one

From a fundamental point of view, the main domestic producing areas have completely stopped cutting, and the main producing countries in Southeast Asia have also entered the suspension season, and the growth rate of output has slowed down
.
The total domestic rubber inventory continued to grow
.
As of January 17, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 246,300 tons, an increase of more than 10,000 tons from the beginning of the month, an increase of 4.
5%.

Among them, the inventory of natural rubber was 137,000 tons, up 4.
74% from the previous month, and the inventory of synthetic rubber was 105,400 tons, an increase of 4.
46%
from the previous month.
The composite rubber maintained 03,900 tons
.
Specifically, the inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber has increased, but the increase rate is smaller
than the previous period.
As of February 2, the total inventory of Tianjiao on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 426,000 tons, an increase of 07,200 tons from last week, and the number of warehouse receipts was 372,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons
from last week.

This month, the market price of raw materials for tianjiao in various rubber-producing areas in Asia generally fell
.
As of February 1, Thailand's USS3 was quoted at 43.
99 baht/kg, down 0.
96 baht/kg
from last week.
As of February 1, the CIF price of Thailand's RSS3 tobacco flake gum in Qingdao was $1,775 / ton, down $20/ton from the price at the beginning of the week; Malaysia's SMR20 standard rubber CIF price in Qingdao's main port is 1525 US dollars / ton, down slightly from the price at the beginning of this week; Thailand's STR20 standard rubber CIF price in Qingdao's main port was 1535 US dollars / ton, down slightly from the price at the beginning of this week; Indonesia's SIR20 standard rubber CIF price in Qingdao's main port is $1525/ton, down $15/ton
from the price at the beginning of the week.

According to the latest ANRPC report, the global production of natural rubber in 2017 was 13.
282 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.
9%.

Among them, ANRPC member countries increased by 6.
4%.

In terms of production growth, Cambodia led the country with an increase of 33.
1%, followed by India with 15.
2% and Vietnam with 11.
3%.

Thailand grew by 1.
9% and China by 3.
1%.

In terms of exports, ANRPC member countries exported a total of 9.
862 million tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber and mixed rubber), an increase of 8.
8% year-on-year, and a net increase of 800,000 tons
.
Among them, Indonesia's exports increased by about 500,000 tons compared with last year, and Thailand's increased slightly by 0.
4%
year-on-year.

In 2017, compared with the surge in production and exports of Tianjiao, the consumption of Tianjiao increased very little, resulting in a global oversupply of 377,000 tons
.

In terms of domestic tire factory starts, the operating rate of domestic tire factories fell
slightly this week.
As of February 2, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 67.
87%, down 0.
4% from the previous month; The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 70.
25%, down 0.
77%
from the previous month.
The overall start of construction was higher than the same period of previous years, mainly due to the late Spring Festival this year, the low inventory level of the tire factory itself and the better enthusiasm for stocking
.
The contradiction between supply and demand has not substantially improved, and the market lacks stability
.
To sum up, the fundamentals are still weak, and the Shanghai rubber shock is the main
one.