The fundamentals of overcapacity have not been changed. Adipic acid has not really gotten out of trouble

Entering March, with the strong rebound of the crude oil market, the cyclohexanone-adipic acid-PA66 industry chain has recovered, and adipic acid has temporarily got rid of the dilemma of being deeply stuck in the quagmire
.
As of mid-March, the negotiated price of adipic acid in East China was 6,750-6,850 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of 1,300 yuan compared with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, an increase of 23.
6%, which was out of the 3-month downturn
.
However, can the current adipic acid market really get rid of the quagmire? The author believes that the answer may be no
.
? The reason is mainly due to the serious overcapacity of adipic acid in China
.
In 2015, the global adipic acid production capacity was about 4.
5 million tons, of which China's 1.
91 million tons, accounting for 42.
6%
.
In terms of relative production capacity, the annual output of adipic acid in China in 2015 reached 1.
44 million tons, while the apparent consumption was only 1.
28 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate reached 112.
5%
.
Since 2008, China's adipic acid industry has developed vigorously and its production capacity has increased rapidly
.
Many projects were planned to be put into operation from 2014 to 2015, but in the end only Tangshan Zhonghao 150,000 tons/year and Chongqing Huafeng Phase II 160,000 tons/year were officially started
.
Many of the devices originally planned to be put into production in 2015 have been delayed, and the bleak market caused by overcapacity has made many projects to be put into production hesitate
.
The author believes that in the face of overcapacity, adipic acid urgently needs to find a way out
.
First, expand downstream
.
Although adipic acid has been surplus in the early years, and downstream polyurethanes are also exhausted, another downstream product, PA66, is in a period of rapid development, and the demand for adipic acid still has room for growth
.
Following the completion of the 200,000-ton/year PA66 plant of Shanghai INVISTA in November 2015, the domestic PA66 production capacity will be expanded to more than 500,000 tons in 2016
.
The increase in domestic production capacity of the downstream product PA66 can not only reduce China's foreign dependence on PA66, but also appropriately alleviate the problem of excess adipic acid
.
Second, increase exports
.
From the perspective of import and export data, China's total export of adipic acid in 2015 was about 184,000 tons, an increase of 18.
2% year-on-year
.
Since 2012, China has become an exporter of adipic acid, and the export volume has been increasing year by year
.
It is expected that in the next few years, in the face of fierce competition in the domestic market, China's export proportion of adipic acid will continue to increase
.
In this way, it also helps to alleviate the excess of adipic acid
.
At the National Two Meetings that just ended, the problem of reducing production capacity and adjusting the structure of the chemical industry has become the focus again.
Industrial reform is urgent and will be unswervingly persisted in the next few years
.
This is a good opportunity for adipic acid to solve the problem of excess
.
If the policy is implemented, the production of adipic acid products will be better planned and concentrated, combined with the rapid development of downstream products and smooth export roads, then adipic acid will likely have a new look
.