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In August, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was US$51.
87/barrel, a year-on-year increase of US$4.
71/barrel, an increase of 10%; a month-on-month increase of US$2.
72/barrel, an increase of 5.
5%
.
The average price of WTI crude oil futures was US$48.
06/barrel, a year-on-year increase of US$3.
26/barrel, an increase of 7.
3%; a month-on-month increase of US$1.
38/barrel, an increase of 3%
.
???? The average price of Brent crude oil from January to August was US$52.
22/barrel, a year-on-year increase of US$9.
74/barrel, or 22.
9%
.
Looking back at the international oil prices in August, the overall trend was within a narrow range, with Brent oil prices operating in the range of US$50 to US$53 per barrel
.
In the first half of the year, the fundamentals showed a negative atmosphere, which caused some speculators to sell their positions, and the oil price ended the band rally and turned into a sideways shock; in the middle of the day, the oil price was dragged down by the risk aversion of the financial market and briefly pulled back to US$50.
27/barrel, but it was then due to Saudi Arabia.
Sending a positive signal of continued production cuts, investor sentiment has greatly improved, and oil prices quickly regained lost ground; in the second half of the year, short-term fundamental changes brought about by the Gulf of Mexico hurricane caused oil price fluctuations, but did not fundamentally change the supply and demand pattern.
Therefore, the center of gravity of oil prices continued to move sideways.
Organize
.
Brent oil prices closed at $52.
38 per barrel at the end of the month
.
In August, the price difference between WTI and Brent expanded significantly, with a fluctuation range of US$2.
62~5.
56/barrel.
The monthly average price difference was upside down to US$3.
81/barrel, which was an increase of 55.
5% from July’s US$2.
45/barrel.
.
????? In the first 8 months, the Brent-Dubai price gap narrowed significantly by US$2.
7 per year compared to the same period last year due to the reduction in production under the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreement, the rise in U.
S.
shale oil production and crude oil exports, and arbitrage.
The spread between barrels and Brent-WTI expanded by 1.
16 US dollars per barrel year-on-year
.
In September, from a fundamental point of view, Libya's production capacity was frequently interrupted, and the effects of OPEC's production cuts reappeared to support oil prices
.
At the same time, with the increase in labor costs and oil service equipment expenditures, the slowdown in the number of oil rigs and crude oil production in the United States has also supported oil prices.
.
From a financial perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates during the year has dropped significantly, and short-term liquidity in the financial market is abundant, which is positive for oil prices
.
???? But the negative impact is also worthy of attention: multiple hurricanes hit the coastal areas of the United States, and the suspension of refinery production has suppressed the demand for crude oil; North Korea's forcible nuclear test has triggered risk aversion in the financial market; oil prices are technically approaching strong resistance areas , The willingness of speculative funds to actively do more has weakened
.
These have suppressed oil prices
.
???? Brent crude oil futures prices in September are expected to continue to fluctuate and rise, with a fluctuation range of 50 to 57 US dollars per barrel, with an average monthly price of about 53 US dollars per barrel, slightly higher than August
.
???? From October to November, oil prices are expected to maintain a range-bound trend, and the price center is expected to move up further
.
From a fundamental point of view, the global excess inventory is expected to fall to around 150 million barrels in the fourth quarter, a record low since 2015, providing strong support for oil prices
.
?????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? The crude oil output of China fell by 170,000 barrels per day from the previous month, and the implementation rate of production cuts has increased, sending a positive signal to the market
.
The OPEC ministerial meeting is about to be held in Vienna, Austria.
By then, the production reduction agreement is expected to be extended for another three months, providing new assistance for the rebalancing of supply and demand
.
???? From the perspective of capital, the US dollar index continues to fall unilaterally, and financial market liquidity remains abundant.
However, North Korea's forced nuclear test and Brexit are pending.
These geopolitical events are fermented in stages, which can easily stimulate investors.
Selling risky assets such as oil futures and investing in safe-haven assets such as gold instead of risk-averse sentiment is a potential incentive for short-term fluctuations in oil prices
.
Considering all factors, the fundamentals of the global oil market are recovering steadily, but there are certain hidden dangers on the capital side.
Therefore, there is a high probability that the oil price operating range from October to November will not break through.
It is expected that Brent crude oil futures The price ranges from 50 to 56 US dollars per barrel
.
87/barrel, a year-on-year increase of US$4.
71/barrel, an increase of 10%; a month-on-month increase of US$2.
72/barrel, an increase of 5.
5%
.
The average price of WTI crude oil futures was US$48.
06/barrel, a year-on-year increase of US$3.
26/barrel, an increase of 7.
3%; a month-on-month increase of US$1.
38/barrel, an increase of 3%
.
???? The average price of Brent crude oil from January to August was US$52.
22/barrel, a year-on-year increase of US$9.
74/barrel, or 22.
9%
.
Looking back at the international oil prices in August, the overall trend was within a narrow range, with Brent oil prices operating in the range of US$50 to US$53 per barrel
.
In the first half of the year, the fundamentals showed a negative atmosphere, which caused some speculators to sell their positions, and the oil price ended the band rally and turned into a sideways shock; in the middle of the day, the oil price was dragged down by the risk aversion of the financial market and briefly pulled back to US$50.
27/barrel, but it was then due to Saudi Arabia.
Sending a positive signal of continued production cuts, investor sentiment has greatly improved, and oil prices quickly regained lost ground; in the second half of the year, short-term fundamental changes brought about by the Gulf of Mexico hurricane caused oil price fluctuations, but did not fundamentally change the supply and demand pattern.
Therefore, the center of gravity of oil prices continued to move sideways.
Organize
.
Brent oil prices closed at $52.
38 per barrel at the end of the month
.
In August, the price difference between WTI and Brent expanded significantly, with a fluctuation range of US$2.
62~5.
56/barrel.
The monthly average price difference was upside down to US$3.
81/barrel, which was an increase of 55.
5% from July’s US$2.
45/barrel.
.
????? In the first 8 months, the Brent-Dubai price gap narrowed significantly by US$2.
7 per year compared to the same period last year due to the reduction in production under the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreement, the rise in U.
S.
shale oil production and crude oil exports, and arbitrage.
The spread between barrels and Brent-WTI expanded by 1.
16 US dollars per barrel year-on-year
.
In September, from a fundamental point of view, Libya's production capacity was frequently interrupted, and the effects of OPEC's production cuts reappeared to support oil prices
.
At the same time, with the increase in labor costs and oil service equipment expenditures, the slowdown in the number of oil rigs and crude oil production in the United States has also supported oil prices.
.
From a financial perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates during the year has dropped significantly, and short-term liquidity in the financial market is abundant, which is positive for oil prices
.
???? But the negative impact is also worthy of attention: multiple hurricanes hit the coastal areas of the United States, and the suspension of refinery production has suppressed the demand for crude oil; North Korea's forcible nuclear test has triggered risk aversion in the financial market; oil prices are technically approaching strong resistance areas , The willingness of speculative funds to actively do more has weakened
.
These have suppressed oil prices
.
???? Brent crude oil futures prices in September are expected to continue to fluctuate and rise, with a fluctuation range of 50 to 57 US dollars per barrel, with an average monthly price of about 53 US dollars per barrel, slightly higher than August
.
???? From October to November, oil prices are expected to maintain a range-bound trend, and the price center is expected to move up further
.
From a fundamental point of view, the global excess inventory is expected to fall to around 150 million barrels in the fourth quarter, a record low since 2015, providing strong support for oil prices
.
?????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? The crude oil output of China fell by 170,000 barrels per day from the previous month, and the implementation rate of production cuts has increased, sending a positive signal to the market
.
The OPEC ministerial meeting is about to be held in Vienna, Austria.
By then, the production reduction agreement is expected to be extended for another three months, providing new assistance for the rebalancing of supply and demand
.
???? From the perspective of capital, the US dollar index continues to fall unilaterally, and financial market liquidity remains abundant.
However, North Korea's forced nuclear test and Brexit are pending.
These geopolitical events are fermented in stages, which can easily stimulate investors.
Selling risky assets such as oil futures and investing in safe-haven assets such as gold instead of risk-averse sentiment is a potential incentive for short-term fluctuations in oil prices
.
Considering all factors, the fundamentals of the global oil market are recovering steadily, but there are certain hidden dangers on the capital side.
Therefore, there is a high probability that the oil price operating range from October to November will not break through.
It is expected that Brent crude oil futures The price ranges from 50 to 56 US dollars per barrel
.