The "holy girl" appeared and the agricultural products were stupid.

　The La Nina phenomenon, which usually affects the prices of a wide range of agricultural products, will bring more precipitation to countries such as Australia and raise food prices by raising expectations of production cuts in global food markets. According to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, La Nina has formed. Market participants said the weather phenomenon will affect the production of soybeans, rapeseed, sugar, coffee and other agricultural products.
last time La Nina arrived was in 2011, when the World Food Price Index, released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, rose by nearly 40%. Will La Nina's re-appearance set off a global market for agricultural products? Since this week, the domestic commodity market oil, sugar futures prices rose sharply, showing that there is money has been stupid.
La Nina
La Nina stands for "little girl, saint" in Spanish, referring specific to unusually cold waters in some parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
According to the definition of our National Climate Centre, when the sea temperature in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (Nino 3.4 region, i.e. between 120 degrees west longitude and 170 degrees north-south latitude) is 0.5 degrees Celsius lower than usual, i.e. entering La Nina state, if it lasts for 5 months, it is determined to be the formation of a La Nina event.
recent warnings from a number of international meteorological agencies that La Nina could indeed occur in autumn and winter 2020. According to analysis by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, surface sea temperatures in many parts of the tropical Middle East Pacific have been significantly lower in the week to the end of August, even in some areas, above 1 degree Celsius.
"the global climate was in La Nina in August, with noAA predicting a 75 percent chance of a continuation of La Nina in winter, according to NOAA. For soybeans, winter is the southern hemisphere Brazil, Argentina and other countries of soybean growth season, in the event of La Nina phenomenon, which may cause Brazil, Argentina soybean drought yield reduction, international soybean prices rose sharply. Yang Yanxia, a researcher in agricultural products at Guo investment anxin futures, told China Securities News.Li Xiaowei, an analyst at
Futures White Sugar, said: "La Nina weather is reported to be mainly in Southeast Asia and Australia, Australia is the world's third largest sugar exporter, although its position is more important, but production is not too high, because Brazil's exports accounted for more than 50% of the world, plus Thailand, the two countries accounted for more than 70% of the world's exports, other countries are not too high proportion of exports." Brazil's new squeeze season has increased sharply, and it will export heavily to supply global supplies. For sugar markets, more attention needs to be paid to above-average droughts, such as Thailand's 43% cut last year. "
fat white sugar who is more cattle
history, La Nina phenomenon usually leads to international soybean prices.
"In 2011-2012, La Nina was long and severe, with large crop losses in both the southern and northern hemispheres from spring to summer 2012 and international soybean prices rising to record highs." Yang said.
, white sugar is less affected. La Nina and El Nino, two of the more extreme weather events, usually bring droughts and floods, Mr Li said. If the duration is short, it will have little effect on sugarcane production. If drought accumulates to a certain extent, it may have a greater impact. Currently in the growth of sugar cane and beet, the late need for a lot of precipitation and high enough temperature difference to provide adequate growth conditions. The impact of the weather on sugar cane needs to be specific, unlike other agricultural products such as soybeans, rape, in the event of flooding or dry weather, the impact is obvious, and may even be large-scale production reduction.
Li Xiaowei said: "Maybe you saw this piece of sugar cane land soaked, but soon the water fell, it did not have a big impact on it." The current stage is its growth period, if enough water, will make sugar cane grow particularly high in a short period of time, thereby increasing overall production. If the temperature difference is large enough in the later stages, that is, during drought, it will help to increase sugar. At
time, Brazil is in the production stage, has not yet reached the peak of production, Thailand, India and other Southeast Asian countries in the sugar cane growth, has not yet officially opened.
" in late September, domestic and foreign beets will be squeezed one after another. The overall situation in the sugar market this year has been an increase in supply and some reduction in demand; "Australia's sugar cane is grown along the coast, so whenever there is a relatively large global severe weather like La Nina or El Nino, it is the first to be affected," Li said.
"Every weather hype starts in Australia," he said. Li Xiaowei said that at present, the overall extreme weather phenomenon in sugar-producing countries in Southeast Asia is not particularly obvious.
the weather market to bring speculation
the domestic agricultural market will repeat the 2011 bull market? How much room is there for speculation in the weather market?
week, in the weather market speculation atmosphere, oil, sugar and other futures varieties ushered in a rise, oil and oil futures rose particularly obvious. As of September 15, soybean, vegetable oil, palm oil and sugar futures contracts were up 8.1 percent, 6.3 percent, 10.6 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively, according to Wenhua Financial Data.
"The international soybean market is in a strong upward position, partly on the basis of the market's hope that China's strong procurement demand will continue, on the other hand, La Nina theme also brings some imagination space and long-term uncertainty to the market." Yang said investors can actively pay attention to China's actual procurement situation, and whether the southern hemisphere growth season will still have La Nina theme support, investment can meet the low layout of soybean meal long-term single.
Li xiaowei believes that even last year's severe drought in Thailand, as well as the rollover of La Nina and El Nino in previous years, has not been too dramatic in its impact on sugar cane. Although the typhoon will cause sugar cane to fall, but sugar cane can still grow, and a lot of precipitation is conducive to sugarcane growth. For agricultural products, other varieties may be more affected and price volatility will be more intense. From the speculation space, the current outer plate sugar price is in a medium low position, there is a strong support. In the short term, against the backdrop of brazil's increased production and the start of the new squeeze season, the mood is not too optimistic. If funds chase weather themes, sugar prices may gradually rebound from lows, coupled with end-of-year consumption peak to boost market sentiment, if the two resonance, sugar futures, options is a good investment opportunity.
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