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Market review, Shanghai copper main weekly four trading days fell significantly, especially Monday, the end of the Dragon Boat Holiday plunged low to 51430 yuan last month low, the trend is obviously cautious, consumption off-season is coming, although near the weekend copper price slightly rebounded narrowed part of the decline, but in the short term is still difficult to get rid of the weakness, the rise is very limited, lack of fundamental support, next week Shanghai copper in the range of 51000-52000 yuan shock adjustment
.
In the short term
, we need to continue to pay attention to the latest situation of Sino-US trade frictions and the US dollar index.
In the external market, the Sino-US trade war has rekindled, and base metals have fallen across the board this week, with a significant
decline.
London copper fell sharply through a number of support levels, once down to $6772, down about $100, near Friday slightly suspended decline, but the overall is obviously weak, scrap copper supply shortage on copper prices support strong, but the strong dollar on copper prices significantly suppressed, is expected next week London copper in the range of 6750-6950 US dollars weak adjustment
.
On the macro front, the US dollar index as a whole showed an upward trend
.
Since the US dollar raised interest rates in mid-June, under the policy of keeping interest rates in the euro and other currencies, the US dollar has continued to strengthen, and the US dollar index has been pushed higher as a whole, and it is expected that the US dollar index may continue to rise next week
.
The Sino-US trade war 3.
0 officially started
.
The US tariffs on steel and aluminum products have drawn strong pushbacks from trading partners
.
Recently, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Turkey and other countries have taken countermeasures against the United States
.
Trade war tensions spread around the world, with most base metals falling sharply, and according to the current trend, there is still a possibility
of escalation next week.
In terms of the market, as copper prices continued to plummet, downstream bargain hunting increased slightly, and under the pressure of environmental protection and capital tension in the middle of the year, holders significantly adjusted prices and shipments, and spot continued to expand discounts, but downstream confidence in receiving goods was insufficient, and the transaction was generally weak
.
In terms of recycled copper, the holders were obviously reluctant to sell, the spot turned back to premium, the two parties were obviously deadlocked, and the overall transaction was weak
.
It is expected that spot prices will gradually turn to premium next week, and spot prices will continue to adjust and recover
.
Looking ahead, the trade war is actually not conducive to the long-term development of the economy for all countries, China and the United States can not endlessly expand the scale of tariffs, it is expected that under the easing of market risk aversion, copper prices are on track, and it is unlikely that it will fall sharply again
.
Watch for pressure on copper prices from a stronger dollar and the Escondida copper mine
in Chile, which is still under negotiation.
Next week, copper prices are expected to bottom out
.
