The industry still needs to replenish inventory, and the price of vitamin A may continue to rise

[pharmaceutical Station market analysis] in 2018, the total capacity of vitamin A in the world is about 37000 tons, the demand is about 27000 tons, and the demand / capacity ratio is about 73% In addition, the overcapacity of vitamin E is more prominent In 2018, the global total capacity of 50% of vitamin E powder is about 246000 tons, the demand is about 160000 tons, the demand / capacity ratio is about 65%, and 40% of domestic vitamin E can be exported In terms of vitamin A, the author understands that vitamin A is mainly used in feed and food medicine Insiders say that since 2015, the price of vitamin A has been in the rising range In May this year, the external quotation of vitamin a raw materials was 385-390 yuan per kilogram, more than 100 yuan when it started to rise in mid April (280 yuan) A trader salesman said that part of the increase in the price of vitamin A was due to the manufacturer's price increase, while dealers were often very sensitive to the market When the price began to rise in mid April, many people had stepped up their hoarding In addition, the Swiss factory of DSM, a bulk drug giant, has been shut down for 2-3 months due to the contamination of bacteria in wastewater treatment During this period, vitamin A products stopped reporting and signing, which is also one of the factors promoting the price rise of vitamin A Some people added that the increase in vitamin a price was also related to the safety and environmental protection of limited production At the same time, affected by the problem of wastewater treatment plants in overseas enterprises, the price of vitamin a rose to 380-400 yuan per kilogram Some securities institutions said that at present, the global production pattern of vitamin industry has basically formed a three pole production pattern with China as the production center and BASF of overseas Germany and DSM of the Netherlands as the supplement Among them, BASF has a capacity of 6300 tons and a market share of about 21% However, it controls more than 60% of citral production capacity in the world It is one of the three largest citral manufacturers in the world and has a significant impact on the price of vitamin A As mentioned above, at the end of April, DSM's VA stopped reporting due to sewage treatment problems, during which the supply of VA and ve decreased Since the second quarter, the average market price of VA has increased by 27% and the average market price of VE has increased by 31% Earlier, DSM announced that in 2017-2018, the ultra long-term production reduction and maintenance plan of vitamin a further contracted the supply of vitamin A Therefore, securities institutions expect that in the future, vitamin prices are expected to continue to rise, and relevant listed companies will benefit from it In A-share listed companies, vitamin a concept shares mainly include XinHeCheng, Zhejiang medicine, jindawei, brother technology, etc In terms of profitability, the profitability of XinHeCheng has increased significantly in recent years Specifically, in 2015, the price of vitamin A was low, and it was also the performance low of XinHeCheng Its gross and net interest rates were only 27.22% and 10%, respectively, and its weighted roe was only 5.74% With the rapid development of VA price, gross profit and net profit of XinHeCheng in 2018 have reached new highs in 8 years According to relevant reports, regarding vitamin A, the current market is indeed more nervous than before, but there is no such an exaggerated picture that it can't be delivered completely Up to now, the price of vitamins has stabilized, but if some dealers have run out of inventory, they may also focus on a batch of goods At that time, the price of vitamin A may rise In addition, some insiders pointed out that the inventory of vitamin A is low, and the industry still needs to replenish the inventory Therefore, the prosperity of vitamin A industry will continue for some time.