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    Home > Active Ingredient News > Infection > "The Lancet" Sub-Journal: By the end of this century, malaria and dengue fever are expected to affect more than 8 billion people

    "The Lancet" Sub-Journal: By the end of this century, malaria and dengue fever are expected to affect more than 8 billion people

    • Last Update: 2021-07-29
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Malaria and dengue fever are global threats, and they are being discovered in more areas
    .


    Malaria is moving to high altitude areas, and urbanization is related to the increased risk of dengue fever


    Climate change has made people more worried that mosquitoes can transmit malaria and dengue fever, increase pathogens, and extend the transmission season
    .


    Recently, a new study published in The Lancet-Earth Health shows that if greenhouse gas emissions are maintained, it is estimated that more than 8 billion people may be at risk of malaria and dengue fever by the end of this century


    If greenhouse gas emissions are maintained, it is estimated that more than 8 billion people may be at risk of malaria and dengue fever by the end of this century


    Felipe J Colón-González at al.
    Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study.
    The Lancet Planetary Health .
    DOI: https://doi.
    org/ 10.
    1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7

    Felipe J Colón-González at al.
    Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study.
    The Lancet Planetary Health .
    DOI: https://doi.
    org/ 10.
    1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7 The Lancet Planetary Health

    The research team used a series of models to predict the impact of climate change on the risk of malaria and dengue fever transmitted by mosquitoes 100 years ago and at the end of the 21st century?

    Due to the current warming in most tropical regions, the suitability of malaria is expected to gradually increase, especially in Africa, the eastern Mediterranean and the American highlands, while dengue fever is increasing in the western Pacific, lowlands of the eastern Mediterranean, and highlands of the Americas
    .

    The research team estimates that if the temperature rises by about 3.
    7°C from pre-industrial levels by 2100, it means that the population at risk of disease may increase by 4.
    7 billion people compared with 1970-1999, especially in low-lying areas and urban areas
    .

    As far as malaria is concerned, a total of 8.
    4 billion people are at risk in 2078 (accounting for 89.
    3% of the estimated global population of 9.
    4 billion), and as early as 1970-1999 this figure was 3.
    7 billion (accounting for 75.
    6% of the global population of 4.
    9 billion at that time)
    .

    As far as malaria is concerned, a total of 8.
    4 billion people are at risk in 2078 (accounting for 89.
    3% of the estimated global population of 9.
    4 billion), and as early as 1970-1999 this figure was 3.
    7 billion (accounting for 75.
    6% of the global population of 4.
    9 billion at that time)
    .


    As far as malaria is concerned, a total of 8.


    From the perspective of dengue fever, a total of 8.


    However, if actions are taken to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, the impact of this disease will be greatly reduced
    .

    If actions are taken to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, the impact of this disease will be greatly weakened
    .


    If actions are taken to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, the impact of this disease will be greatly weakened


    And in Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent tropical low-lying area, the time may increase the spread of dengue fever four months
    .

    In the tropical low-lying areas of Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Indian subcontinent, the time it takes for dengue fever to spread may increase by four months
    .


    In the tropical low-lying areas of Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Indian subcontinent, the time it takes for dengue fever to spread may increase by four months


    The relationship between LTS (transmission season), temperature and precipitation

    The relationship between LTS (transmission season), temperature and precipitation

    DGM=dengue fever model, LCMI=Lancet "countdown" malaria indicator, LMM_R 0=Liverpool malaria model, LTS=length of transmission season, SSP=shared socioeconomic approach

    DGM=dengue fever model, LCMI=Lancet "countdown" malaria indicator, LMM_R 0=Liverpool malaria model, LTS=length of transmission season, SSP=shared socioeconomic approach

    Some areas may become too hot, causing other health effects such as heat deaths, reduced labor productivity, and reduced food production


    Original source:

    Felipe J Colón-González at al.


    Felipe J Colón-González at al.


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