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Yesterday, Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the November press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission that in the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will pay close attention to the dynamics of the pig market, continue to choose the opportunity to release central pork reserves, and if necessary, further increase the investment efforts, and guide all localities to simultaneously release local reserves
.
In fact, hog prices have oscillated lower
since November.
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on 500 county markets and collection points across the country showed that in the first week of November, the average price of piglets nationwide was 46.
78 yuan/kg, a change of -0.
4% over the previous week and a year-on-year change of 88.
9%; The national average pig price was 26.
87 yuan/kg, a change of -2.
9% over the previous week and a year-on-year change of 67.
1%; The national average price of pork was 41.
60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and a year-on-year change of 60.
5%.
In addition to Xinjiang, pig prices were reduced in 29 provinces including Fujian, Shanghai, Guangdong, Beijing and Tianjin
.
In this regard, Wang Jun, an analyst of agricultural products at Minmetals Futures, said that it was mainly affected
by two factors.
On the supply side, the pressure sentiment began to loosen after the price increase, and with the increase in the weight of the pigs in stock, the current fat pigs are coming out of the slaughter one after another, which puts some pressure
on the spot.
In addition, the continued sluggish demand since November is the direct cause of the decline in spot prices, and the current weak demand is affected by two factors: first, after entering the winter, most parts of the country have cooled less than expected; Second, the epidemic has repeatedly reduced pork consumption capacity
.
The reporter learned that although the pig price has decreased month-on-month, it is still high
compared with the same period in history.
As of November 16, the national average pig price was 24.
12 yuan / kg, compared with 17.
71 yuan / kg in the same period last year, up 6.
41 yuan / kg year-on-year, a year-on-year increase of 36.
17%.
"Compared with the data of previous years, the average pig head breeding profit is at a high level in the same period of history, second only to 2019
.
" Guangzhou futures analyst Fan Hongjun said
.
In fact, with the early pig price entering the upward channel, the entire industry has entered a state of turning losses into profits, and the overall sales, average sales price and revenue of listed pig enterprises have improved
significantly 。 Data show that in October, Makihara Co.
, Ltd.
sold 4.
779 million pigs, with sales revenue of 14.
937 billion yuan, and the average sales price of commercial pigs was 26.
05 yuan/kg, an increase of 12.
97% over September 2022; Wenshi sold 1.
6524 million pigs in October, with an income of 5.
474 billion yuan, and an average sales price of 26.
69 yuan/kg, with month-on-month changes of 4.
29%, 18.
69% and 11.
72% respectively; New Hope sold 1.
4555 million pigs in October, with an income of 3.
608 billion yuan, and the average sales price of commercial pigs was 25.
83 yuan/kg, with month-on-month changes of 24.
7%, 19.
35% and 12.
50%
respectively.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic pig prices have experienced a process of falling first and then rising, but due to the impact of secondary fattening and pen sales, pig prices entered the first-level warning range of excessive rise by the end of October, and the National Development and Reform Commission announced the release of the 7th batch of central pork reserves to promote pig prices to return to a reasonable range
as soon as possible.
Meng Wei said at the press conference that in the future, although the pork market is still in the peak consumption season, the domestic breeding sows, newborn piglets and fattening pigs have all rebounded for many months, and the market supply will increase
accordingly.
In particular, we have monitored that the rhythm of farmers has become normal in recent days, and pigs that have been pressed in the early stage and secondary fattening have also begun to be slaughtered one after another, which will further increase market supply
.
Overall, the supply of pigs and pork in the market is guaranteed in the future, and the price is expected to remain relatively stable, and it is difficult to rise sharply
.
"In terms of demand, November to before the Spring Festival is the traditional pork demand season, but also the fat pig demand season, the current temperature has not yet reached the best marinade conditions, the current centralized marinade has not yet started, but due to the epidemic and relatively high pig price suppression, the demand for pickling may not be enough in the same period
of previous years.
On the supply side, in addition to the incremental impact caused by the average head weight, pigs that were fattened twice in August and September began to be slaughtered one after another, but pigs that were fattened twice in October have not yet begun to be slaughtered, and may be slaughtered
before the winter solstice to the Spring Festival.
In addition, some pigs that are slaughtered after the year may be slaughtered
before the Spring Festival in advance.
Wei Xiu, an agricultural product analyst at Huishang Futures, said that due to the recent large decline in spot prices, farmers in some areas have gradually raised their price mentality, but the terminal goods are not good, demand is still weak, and short-term price oscillation adjustment
is expected.
In addition, it is not ruled out that the pig price may change sharply before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to pay attention to the rhythm
of the slaughter.
In Fan Hongjun's view, more variables affecting the price trend of pigs lie on the demand side
.
"In terms of absolute prices, although it is currently in the high price range, it is significantly lower than in 2019, and this year's macroeconomic growth has slowed down due to geopolitical and other factors, while the epidemic factors have brought uncertainty
to demand in the later stage.
" He said
.
"On the supply side, due to the increase in the inventory base and the successive release of pigs that gained weight in the early stage, there will be a gradual recovery process month-on-month, but due to the earlier dematerialization exceeding expectations, the overall supply tone is still tight
.
On the demand side, it depends on the recovery of future consumption before the holiday, especially the acceptance of the price of pickles this year, if consumption recovers well, pig prices may still rebound in the future, and vice versa
.
Wang Jun said
.
Compared to spot, the recent market is relatively strong
.
In this regard, Wang Jun said that on the one hand, because the futures price fell earlier, and it is still heavily discounted to the spot, it is relatively resistant
.
On the other hand, in the process of falling spot prices in the early stage, there were signs of "low price resistance", and consumption recovered to a certain extent after the price declined, which made the market have the idea of
buying on the dip.
In Fan Hongjun's view, the price trend of the pig plate needs to pay attention to two levels: first, whether the inflection point of spot has appeared; The second is the space for spot prices to fall, because the current futures price is heavily discounted, and the basis constitutes a certain support
for the futures price.
In this case, a weaker-than-expected spot decline may also lead to a rebound
in futures.
;
;Yesterday, Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the November press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission that in the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will pay close attention to the dynamics of the pig market, continue to choose the opportunity to release central pork reserves, and if necessary, further increase the investment efforts, and guide all localities to simultaneously release local reserves
.
In fact, hog prices have oscillated lower
since November.
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on 500 county markets and collection points across the country showed that in the first week of November, the average price of piglets nationwide was 46.
78 yuan/kg, a change of -0.
4% over the previous week and a year-on-year change of 88.
9%; The national average pig price was 26.
87 yuan/kg, a change of -2.
9% over the previous week and a year-on-year change of 67.
1%; The national average price of pork was 41.
60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and a year-on-year change of 60.
5%.
In addition to Xinjiang, pig prices were reduced in 29 provinces including Fujian, Shanghai, Guangdong, Beijing and Tianjin
.
In this regard, Wang Jun, an analyst of agricultural products at Minmetals Futures, said that it was mainly affected
by two factors.
On the supply side, the pressure sentiment began to loosen after the price increase, and with the increase in the weight of the pigs in stock, the current fat pigs are coming out of the slaughter one after another, which puts some pressure
on the spot.
In addition, the continued sluggish demand since November is the direct cause of the decline in spot prices, and the current weak demand is affected by two factors: first, after entering the winter, most parts of the country have cooled less than expected; Second, the epidemic has repeatedly reduced pork consumption capacity
.
The reporter learned that although the pig price has decreased month-on-month, it is still high
compared with the same period in history.
As of November 16, the national average pig price was 24.
12 yuan / kg, compared with 17.
71 yuan / kg in the same period last year, up 6.
41 yuan / kg year-on-year, a year-on-year increase of 36.
17%.
"Compared with the data of previous years, the average pig head breeding profit is at a high level in the same period of history, second only to 2019
.
" Guangzhou futures analyst Fan Hongjun said
.
In fact, with the early pig price entering the upward channel, the entire industry has entered a state of turning losses into profits, and the overall sales, average sales price and revenue of listed pig enterprises have improved
significantly 。 Data show that in October, Makihara Co.
, Ltd.
sold 4.
779 million pigs, with sales revenue of 14.
937 billion yuan, and the average sales price of commercial pigs was 26.
05 yuan/kg, an increase of 12.
97% over September 2022; Wenshi sold 1.
6524 million pigs in October, with an income of 5.
474 billion yuan, and an average sales price of 26.
69 yuan/kg, with month-on-month changes of 4.
29%, 18.
69% and 11.
72% respectively; New Hope sold 1.
4555 million pigs in October, with an income of 3.
608 billion yuan, and the average sales price of commercial pigs was 25.
83 yuan/kg, with month-on-month changes of 24.
7%, 19.
35% and 12.
50%
respectively.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic pig prices have experienced a process of falling first and then rising, but due to the impact of secondary fattening and pen sales, pig prices entered the first-level warning range of excessive rise by the end of October, and the National Development and Reform Commission announced the release of the 7th batch of central pork reserves to promote pig prices to return to a reasonable range
as soon as possible.
Meng Wei said at the press conference that in the future, although the pork market is still in the peak consumption season, the domestic breeding sows, newborn piglets and fattening pigs have all rebounded for many months, and the market supply will increase
accordingly.
In particular, we have monitored that the rhythm of farmers has become normal in recent days, and pigs that have been pressed in the early stage and secondary fattening have also begun to be slaughtered one after another, which will further increase market supply
.
Overall, the supply of pigs and pork in the market is guaranteed in the future, and the price is expected to remain relatively stable, and it is difficult to rise sharply
.
"In terms of demand, November to before the Spring Festival is the traditional pork demand season, but also the fat pig demand season, the current temperature has not yet reached the best marinade conditions, the current centralized marinade has not yet started, but due to the epidemic and relatively high pig price suppression, the demand for pickling may not be enough in the same period
of previous years.
On the supply side, in addition to the incremental impact caused by the average head weight, pigs that were fattened twice in August and September began to be slaughtered one after another, but pigs that were fattened twice in October have not yet begun to be slaughtered, and may be slaughtered
before the winter solstice to the Spring Festival.
In addition, some pigs that are slaughtered after the year may be slaughtered
before the Spring Festival in advance.
Wei Xiu, an agricultural product analyst at Huishang Futures, said that due to the recent large decline in spot prices, farmers in some areas have gradually raised their price mentality, but the terminal goods are not good, demand is still weak, and short-term price oscillation adjustment
is expected.
In addition, it is not ruled out that the pig price may change sharply before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to pay attention to the rhythm
of the slaughter.
In Fan Hongjun's view, more variables affecting the price trend of pigs lie on the demand side
.
"In terms of absolute prices, although it is currently in the high price range, it is significantly lower than in 2019, and this year's macroeconomic growth has slowed down due to geopolitical and other factors, while the epidemic factors have brought uncertainty
to demand in the later stage.
" He said
.
"On the supply side, due to the increase in the inventory base and the successive release of pigs that gained weight in the early stage, there will be a gradual recovery process month-on-month, but due to the earlier dematerialization exceeding expectations, the overall supply tone is still tight
.
On the demand side, it depends on the recovery of future consumption before the holiday, especially the acceptance of the price of pickles this year, if consumption recovers well, pig prices may still rebound in the future, and vice versa
.
Wang Jun said
.
Compared to spot, the recent market is relatively strong
.
In this regard, Wang Jun said that on the one hand, because the futures price fell earlier, and it is still heavily discounted to the spot, it is relatively resistant
.
On the other hand, in the process of falling spot prices in the early stage, there were signs of "low price resistance", and consumption recovered to a certain extent after the price declined, which made the market have the idea of
buying on the dip.
.
In Fan Hongjun's view, the price trend of the pig plate needs to pay attention to two levels: first, whether the inflection point of spot has appeared; The second is the space for spot prices to fall, because the current futures price is heavily discounted, and the basis constitutes a certain support
for the futures price.
In this case, a weaker-than-expected spot decline may also lead to a rebound
in futures.
