The lower support is strong, and Shanghai aluminum opens low and goes high

Market focus: (1) The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that retail sales fell 8.
7% in March, the biggest decline since it began tracking the data in 1992
.
At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States will be released
.

Spot analysis: On April 16, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 11980-12020 yuan / ton, with an average price of 12000 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 90 yuan / ton
.
Morning holders shipments are more active, middlemen receive goods generally, with the rise of aluminum prices, coupled with a large market receipt price is better, the overall market quotation up, at this time the holder shipment convergence performance wait-and-see, although the middleman actively receives goods but at this time it is more difficult to trade
.
Downstream intraday on-demand goods are mainly received, because aluminum prices rose significantly in the afternoon, downstream procurement enthusiasm has been suppressed
to a certain extent.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 289918 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 4177 tons; On April 15, LME aluminum stocks were 1261550 tons, an increase of 13,550 tons per day, an increase of 6 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2006 contract were 84549 lots, a daily increase of 262 lots, a short position of 101228 lots, a daily decrease of 4909 lots, a net short position of 16679 lots, a daily decrease of 5171 lots, more short increase and reduction, and a decrease
in net short.

At present, aluminum prices are still below the cost line, electrolytic aluminum plants are in a state of comprehensive losses, resulting in increased scale of production reductions, coupled with the recovery of downstream processing plant production, demand recovery has made Shanghai aluminum inventories enter a downward channel, and aluminum prices have strong support below
.
However, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy continues, overseas orders have declined significantly, and downstream demand is still difficult to say optimistic; Coupled with the further weakening of alumina prices, the cost line continues to move downward, which also reduces the production reduction expectations of aluminum plants and limits the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the morning carrier shipments are more active, the middlemen receive the goods generally, with the rise of aluminum prices, coupled with a large market receipt price is better, the downstream intraday on-demand receiving is the mainstay
.
Technically, the main 2006 contract daily MACD red column increment of Shanghai aluminum, the increase in mainstream positions and the reduction of short, is expected to be strong in the short term
.