The macro environment atmosphere is relatively good, and Shanghai copper is basically at a high level

The end of the year is imminent, Chinese and American leaders once again called to try to reduce differences, the macro atmosphere of the financial market has eased, copper and aluminum and other non-ferrous metals show the characteristics of the off-season, the price of related assets is subject to domestic macroeconomic stimulation and manufacturing recovery expectations and overall recovery, copper prices upward after breaking through the box resistance, the upper subject to the year's high of 50,000 mark, the subsequent rebound requires further macro cooperation
.

At the macro level, the preliminary value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in December was 45.
90, lower than the previous value and less than expected, the UK 12 manufacturing PMI was 47.
40, falling for two consecutive months, the preliminary value of the United States Markit manufacturing PMI in December was 52.
5, lower than expected and the previous value 0.
1 percentage points, from the December manufacturing PMI data of major European and American countries, the macroeconomic phased recovery is weakening
.
China's official manufacturing PMI in November was 50.
2, exceeding expectations by 0.
7 percentage points, and the manufacturing PMI returned to above
the boom-bust line after half a year.
However, the optimistic expectations for Brexit after the UK election and the actions of both sides after the Sino-US trade phase agreement have created a better macro atmosphere
for the present.

Industrial fundamentals, the tight supply of raw materials has been widely recognized by the market, and it is difficult to alleviate in the short term; On the consumer side, although the market has strong expectations for the recovery of consumption, the substantial effect of the recovery on the consumption side is weak, and the refined copper production and copper production in November have increased sharply year-on-year, and the inventory is at a low level, and the side reflects that the consumption side has indeed improved
.
In the field of terminal consumption, the year-on-year decline in power grid investment completion in November has narrowed, but there is still a big gap from the annual investment target, the completion of investment is less than expected, the completed area of the real estate market has increased, and the overall consumption is slowly
recovering.
As of December 13, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 329,100 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 17,400 tons
.
Explicit inventories are low and continue to decline, and inventories have fallen to their lowest
level in half a year.

On the whole, copper prices are basically at a high level this week, and the macro environment atmosphere is better, but it is consistent with the previous market expectations, and copper prices are difficult to continue to rise; The fundamental situation is still the tight supply of raw materials, low inventories to provide strong price support for copper prices, consumption is in a weak recovery stage, the market may need further certainty of the recovery signal to determine the future trend of copper prices, copper prices have a greater possibility of pullback in a short period of time, the consumption data in the first quarter of next year has a strong guiding role, the operation can be bargain hunting, pay attention to transaction risks
.