The macro is still long and short intertwined, and Shanghai aluminum maintains a volatile trend

On the macro side, China's post-holiday economic and production recovery is progressing gratifyingly, and the market has good expectations for China's aluminum demand in the future, but the US fiscal stimulus plan continues to swing, negotiations are deadlocked, and Europe continues to face epidemic prevention pressure, many countries tighten epidemic prevention measures, the overall macro is still long and short intertwined, macro sentiment is uncertain
.

On the supply side, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that primary aluminum production in September increased by 7.
9% year-on-year, with a record average daily output; Alumina prices were subdued
with alumina production of 6.
56 million mt in September, the second consecutive month of record highs.
According to data released by IAI, global aluminum production in September was 5.
424 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
9%.

The profit of supply-side smelters remained high, the industry's production capacity was further released in October, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise, and the supply side was weak
in the fourth quarter.

On the cost side, the cost of alumina continued to fall back to 12,816 yuan on Friday, and the profit of alumina production is still high
.
In terms of premium premium: the domestic Yangtze River nonferrous spot premium was further lowered to 150 yuan / ton
.
The discount was extended to $
13.
94.

In terms of stocks, LME stocks were destocked by 4,900 tons yesterday to 1.
469 million tons after accumulating 63,575 tons last week, and the stocks in the previous period decreased by 10,188 tons last week to 237,800 tons, and the social bank was 701,000 tons
according to the data on October 26, consistent with the statistics on October 22.

Overall, in terms of raw materials, the price of alumina fell slightly, and the current profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry rose slightly, and the overall profit is still in a high position
from a historical perspective.
In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, and the new production capacity in October further releases a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.
Macroscopically, the epidemic has been repeated overseas, and there is uncertainty
about the economic impact of the epidemic.
It is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend will continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and the current macro situation is uncertain, coupled with the peak trend
of the range.