The main contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuates on the short side, lacking upward momentum

Market Focus: (1) The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's overall corporate activity condition index climbed to 12.
9 from 4.
8 in January, the orders index surged to its best level since September 2017, and shipments rose to its highest
level since 2018.
(2) On the 18th, there were 56 new confirmed cases in non-Hubei areas across the country, falling
for the 15th consecutive day.

Spot analysis: On February 19, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13590-13630 yuan / ton, and the average price was 13610 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day
.
Intraday holders shipped actively, traders received goods more actively, near the early afternoon aluminum downward, holders quotations also slightly lower, buyers and sellers traded fairly, the market before noon is mainly the buyer's market
.
In addition, some traders have reported that existing plate, strip, foil and alloy ingot cooperative manufacturers have begun to stock up, and although the amount received is not much, it has improved significantly compared with previous days
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 200619 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 50 tons per day, an increase of 14 consecutive days; On February 18, LME aluminum stocks were 1177425 tons, a daily decrease of 14,950 tons, a decline of 5 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2004 contract were 71303 lots, an increase of 1013 lots per day, 83732 short positions, a daily increase of 2516 lots, a net short position of 12429 lots, a daily increase of 1503 lots, both long and short, and net space increased
.

On February 19, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2004 fluctuated short
.
As of the 18th, the number of new confirmed cases in non-Hubei areas of China has decreased for 15 consecutive days, and the new confirmed cases in other provinces other than Hubei are in single digits; China's epidemic situation showed a downward trend, downstream aluminum companies entered a state of resumption of work, and at the end of February, enterprises planned to resume work, which is conducive to the recovery of downstream demand and supports aluminum prices; However, there is uncertainty in the UK-EU negotiations and pressure on non-US currencies, which has continued to strengthen the US dollar; At the same time, the accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has accelerated, and there is still an expectation of the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the future, the inventory pressure is large, and the aluminum price lacks upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, the shippers were active in shipments during the day, traders received goods more actively, the quotations of the holders were slightly lower, and some traders reported that there were plate, strip, foil and alloy ingot cooperative manufacturers began to stock, although the amount received was not much, but it has improved significantly compared with previous days
.
Technically, the main 2004 contract daily KDJ indicator of Shanghai aluminum is dead, and the mainstream short position increase is large, and the short-term shock is expected to be short
.